The COVID-19 Pandemic severely affected the Indian economy, triggering disruptions and slowdowns. The last quarter of the fiscal year 2020 saw a reduction in the country's growth to 3.1%, as reported by the Ministry of Statistics. Such a drop was primarily blamed on the pandemic, which complicated an already existing economic slowdown.

Pre-Pandemic Economy

Before the pandemic, India was already experiencing an economic slowdown. The ongoing pandemic crisis exacerbated the situation even further, endangering India's financial prospects. Notably, the World Bank declared that the pandemic had accentuated the risks to India's financial outlook.

Economic Forecasts

Initially, institutions like The World Bank and various credit rating agencies revised India's growth projections for FY2021 to their lowest figures in the past 30 years, a period that came after India's economic liberalization in the 1990s. The situation worsened when, following the announcement of an economic relief package in May, India's GDP estimates were further downgraded, hinting at an impending severe recession. It's worth mentioning that during this period, the credit ratings for over 30 countries were downgraded.

Deepening Recession

On 26th May, CRISIL, a global analytical company, declared that this recession might be the worst India has faced since its independence. The State Bank of India (SBI) estimated a contraction of over 40% in the GDP in Q1. Notably, the contraction was predicted to vary according to different states and sectors. On 1 September 2020, the Ministry of Statistics confirmed this contraction, showing a 24% shrinkage in Q1 of FY21, compared to the same period in the previous year.

Unemployment, Losses, and Business Effects

As per the Nomura India Business Resumption Index, economic activity drastically fell from 82.9 in March to 44.7 in April. By September, however, economic activity had nearly returned to its pre-lockdown state. Yet, unemployment rates soared, peaking at 26% in April, and then gradually declining to pre-lockdown levels by mid-June.

The lockdown led to around 140 million people losing their jobs, resulting in salary cuts for many others. Over 45% of households across the country reported a reduction in income compared to the previous year. Economically, it was predicted that India would lose over ₹32,000 crores every day during the first 21-days of complete lockdown, showing the impact of this global outbreak.

Furthermore, less than one-fourth of India's $2.8 trillion economy remained functional during the pandemic lockdown. It was projected that the business activities of about 53% of Indian businesses would be significantly impacted. The lockdown restrictions led to a strain on supply chains, creating uncertainty over what constituted "essential" goods and services.

The people most affected by this crisis were those involved in informal sectors and daily wage earners. Farmers, especially those producing perishable goods, also faced tremendous uncertainties.

Impact on Major Companies and Stock Markets

Prominent Indian companies, including Larsen & Toubro, Bharat Forge, UltraTech Cement, Grasim Industries, Aditya Birla Group, BHEL, and Tata Motors, temporarily suspended or considerably reduced their operations. The situation also impacted startups due to a slump in funding.

Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies significantly reduced their operations, focusing primarily on essentials. Notably, the Indian stock markets recorded their worst losses in history on 23 March 2020. However, after the announcement of a complete 21-day lockdown by the Prime Minister, the stock market showed some resilience, with SENSEX and NIFTY recording their biggest gains in over a decade on 25 March.

Government Measures to Tackle Economic Fallout from COVID-19

In response to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Indian government implemented several measures to support the nation's economy. These measures ranged from improving food security to providing extra funds for healthcare and state governments. Additionally, incentives for specific sectors were provided alongside tax deadline extensions.

On March 26, the government declared a series of economic measures to help the disadvantaged population. The relief fund totaled over ₹170,000 crore, which is equivalent to approximately ₹2.0 trillion or US$24 billion in 2023.

To infuse liquidity into India's finance sector, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) devised a series of strategies the next day, making ₹374,000 crore - equivalent to ₹4.4 trillion or US$53 billion as per the 2023 conversion rate - available to the country's financial system.

Measures Taken by International Organizations

Significantly, international organizations like the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank pledged their support to India to help manage the coronavirus crisis.

Phased Reopening of Economy & Further Measures

India's economy was reopened in phases after the first nationwide lockdown until the "first unlock" on June 1. Each phase had different levels of economic activity.

To counter the economic blow from the pandemic, the RBI Governor announced on April 17 additional measures involving a special finance provision of ₹50,000 crore, equivalent to ₹590 billion or US$7.1 billion in 2023. This funding was aimed at important financial institutions including NABARD, SIDBI, and NHB.

Changes to Foreign Direct Investment Policy

On April 18, changes were made to India's foreign direct investment policy to safeguard domestic companies during the pandemic. The Department of Military Affairs postponed all capital acquisitions for the start of the financial year. The Chief of Defence Staff announced that India should reduce costly defense imports and focus more on domestic production.

Announcement of Economic Stimulus Package

The Prime Minister announced on May 12 an extensive economic stimulus package worth ₹20 lakh crore, equivalent to ₹24 trillion or US$280 billion as per the 2023 conversion rate. On May 14, the Cabinet cleared a series of proposals as part of the economic package, including a free food grains package. However, a Right to Information petition in December 2020 revealed that less than 10% of this stimulus had been disbursed by then.

Economic Recovery Signs

By July 2020, several key economic indicators began to exhibit signs of recovery. Further economic stimulus packages were declared by the government on October 12 and November 12. This increased the total economic stimulus to ₹29.87 lakh crore, equivalent to ₹35 trillion or US$420 billion in 2023. By December 2021, India had regained its pre-COVID-19 economic growth rate.

Simplifying the Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan Concept

On May 12, India's Prime Minister gave a speech to the country. He said that as we are facing the COVID-19 crisis, we should see it as an opportunity to focus more on the India-made goods and achieve financial independence. This idea is referred to as "Atmanirbhar Bharat," which means a self-reliant India. The plan to achieve this is called Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan, or the Self-reliant India Mission.

The next day, the Finance Minister began sharing more about the Prime Minister’s plan, explaining that the goal is not just to have a self-sustaining economy but to promote overall economic growth as well. This idea of a self-reliant India doesn’t imply we should detach ourselves from the world economy; rather, we will stay as an integral part of it.

Echoing the Finance Minister's comments, Ravi Shankar Prasad, Minister for Law and IT, highlighted India's openness to foreign investments and technology. He said self-reliance should make us a stronger player in the world economy rather than isolate us.

However, Shashi Tharoor, a prominent Indian politician, described this Self-reliant India Mission as a revamped version of the "Make in India" initiative.

The Importance of the Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan

This initiative is critical as it aims to uplift and strengthen the Indian economy in the face of the global pandemic, by introducing relief packages and reforms in various sectors. It encourages domestic production and consumption, thereby fostering economic self-reliance and reducing dependency on foreign goods.

Moreover, it ensures India's active participation in the global economy while focusing primarily on internal growth. By inviting foreign direct investment and welcoming new technologies, India can accelerate its development and become globally competitive.

Finally, the Self-reliant India Mission also has a commitment to social welfare, with plans for employment generation, infrastructure development, and increased support for the poor and migrant workers.

The Larger Context of Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan

While there were critiques stating that Atmanirbhar Bharat is merely a repackaged version of "Make in India", it's important to understand the larger context. The Atmanirbhar Bharat mission is a comprehensive scheme that is much broader and deeper than any prior initiative. Moreover, it is not just about manufacturing and producing within the country but also encompasses transforming India into a self-sustaining economy and ensuring a robust supply chain, even during global emergencies.

Various entities, institutions, organizations, and governing laws play a significant role in implementing this mission, such as the Ministry of Finance, and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), among others. These institutions will work together to endorse economic progress, improve financial systems, and secure the wellbeing and prosperity of the Indian population.

In conclusion, Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan can be seen as a driving force towards achieving a stronger and more self-reliant India, preparing us for future global challenges.

Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on India's Economy

The Covid-19 shutdown has had a significant effect on businesses across India, with more than half (53%) reporting a negative impact on their operations, based on a survey conducted by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industries (FICCI) in March 2020.

Job Losses and Unemployment Rate

The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy reported a significant rise in India's unemployment rate from 7% in March to 26% in April 2020. This substantial increase led to job losses for approximately 140 million Indians during the nationwide lockdown. Income drop was reported by 45% of households around the country as compared to the income of the previous year. Numerous businesses, particularly in the hospitality and transportation industries, reduced salaries and downsized their staff.

Impact on Businesses

Sectors like hotels and airlines experienced severe cutbacks on employee wages and manpower. Transportation companies, like Ola Cabs, witnessed approximately 95% reduction in their revenue during March-April, which resulted in around 1400 job cuts. It was projected that the tourism industry alone suffered a loss of ₹15,000 crore ($2.1 billion) in March and April. Indian trade associations like the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), The Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (ASSOCHAM), and Federation of Associations in Indian Tourism & Hospitality (FAITH), estimate that a significant portion of the tourism-related workforce will face unemployment. The live events industry also faced estimated losses of ₹3,000 crore ($420 million).

Effect on Startups

Young startups faced significant challenges due to reduced funding. A report by DataLabs revealed a 45% decrease in growth-stage funding during the first quarter of 2020 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. A KPMG report also highlighted that venture capital in Indian startups dropped over 50% in the first quarter of 2020 from the last quarter of 2019.

Revenue Deficit and Fiscal Measures

The Indian government's revenue collection was significantly impacted due to reduced tax collections, leading to increased efforts to cut its expenditure. Union Minister Nitin Gadkari announced in May 2020 that a few states might not have adequate funds to pay salaries in the future. Former Reserve Bank of India head, Raghuram Rajan, also warned that the pandemic could result in the "greatest emergency since Independence".

Economic Outlook

The Indian economy was projected to lose over ₹32,000 crore ($4.5 billion) daily during the initial 21 days of the lockdown, according to Acuité Ratings. Barclays estimated the cost of the initial 21-day lockdown and the preceding shorter ones to amount to ₹8.5 lakh crore ($120 billion).

The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has urged the government to introduce a fiscal stimulus package equivalent to 1% of India's GDP amounting to ₹2 lakh crore ($28 billion). Some analysts, including those from Jefferies Group and economist Arvind Subramanian, suggest that the government will need to spend even higher amounts ranging from ₹1.3 lakh crore ($18 billion) to ₹10 trillion ($140 billion) to mitigate the pandemic's impact.

In conclusion, the Covid-19 pandemic has had severe implications on India's economy, leading to high unemployment, decreased business revenue, and reduced government income. To counter these effects, Indian organizations and analysts are urging the government to implement substantial fiscal strategies and stimulus packages, aim to revive businesses, especially startups, and boost overall economic recovery.

India's Economic Forecast: Negative Growth In FY21

On April 28th, the former Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) to the Government of India gave a stark forecast for India's economy. He stated that India should be ready for an economic downturn, anticipating a negative growth rate in FY21. This negative economic growth implies that the overall production of goods and services in India's economy would decline during FY21.

RBI Governor's Statement

By May 22nd, the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Shaktikanta Das, echoed the same prediction. He warned that India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth will dip into negative figures for FY21. The GDP is a measure of a country's economic health; it represents the total value of goods and services produced over a specific time period.

Downgraded GDP Predictions

Following the announcement of India's economic stimulus package, several domestic and international agencies have revised their GDP forecasts for FY21. One of which is ICRA (Investment Information and Credit Rating Agency), a prominent ratings agency, which downgraded its growth estimates to -5%. Similarly, multinational investment banking and financial services company, Goldman Sachs, forecasted a -5% GDP estimate. This represents a deep recession, which is a significant decline in activity that lasts longer than a few months.

CRISIL's Statement

Moreover, on May 26th, CRISIL, an analytical company providing ratings, research, and risk and policy advisory services, issued a subsequent statement. The message likely contained further information on India's impending negative growth and economic state. CRISIL’s role in India's financial landscape is pivotal as it delivers independent opinion, efficient solutions, and accurate insight.

While this economic downturn is certainly a challenge, it is important to note that the Government of India, along with the RBI, are taking significant steps to mitigate the situation. This includes the implementation of stimulus packages, regulations to protect small and medium enterprises, and various fiscal and monetary measures. Despite these tough times, the impact of these positive initiatives are expected to gradually stabilize India's economy in the long run.

Introduction

India is going through its fourth recession since gaining independence, and the first one since its economy was liberalized. It's potentially the worst the country has faced till now. The State Bank of India (SBI), one of the major commercial banks in India, has predicted a sharp fall of over 40% in the GDP for the first quarter of the financial year 2021 (Q1 FY21).

Impact on State Revenue

It's not just the central government that's bearing the brunt. States too have suffered due to the pandemic. COVID-19 has caused an estimated loss of 13.5% on the Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP), significantly impacting the states' revenues.

GDP Estimates

The Ministry of Statistics, the central body in charge of collecting official statistics data, has estimated the GDP for the fourth quarter of the financial year 2020 (Q4 FY20) as 3.1%. The overall GDP for the same financial year stands at 4.2%. According to Krishnamurthy Subramanian, the Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) to the Government of India, these figures indicate a slowdown primarily due to the coronavirus pandemic.

International Rating Downgrade

An important issue contributing to India's financial troubles in June 2020 was Moody's downgrading of India's sovereign ratings to its lowest grade. Moody's, known for providing international financial research on bonds issued by commercial and government entities, clarified that while the pandemic was a contributing factor, the downgrade was mainly due to factors such as weak implementation of economic reforms since 2017 and deterioration in the fiscal position of governments. The same credit rating is assigned by other prominent international rating agencies like S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings.

Future Projections

Several international financial institutions have also created projections for the Indian economy. These include Jefferies', which predicted a 5% real GDP contraction, and Nomura, which estimated the figures as -5.6% in Q3 2020, -2.8% in Q4 2020, and -1.4% in Q1 2021. It is essential to note that these predictions and actual outcomes may vary as they are based on multiple dynamic factors.

However, the recession's severity will not be universally felt across all sectors and states. Certain sectors like agriculture and government industries are less likely to experience negative effects.

Latest GDP Figures

In a recent release on 1 September 2020, the Ministry of Statistics disclosed the GDP figures for Q1 FY2021, which showed a much higher contraction of 24%. They will continue to monitor the situation, and further adjustments or measures will be made as necessary.

Impact of COVID-19 on Indian Economy

COVID-19 pandemic has left profound and widespread impacts on everyone, compelling us to reconsider our practical priorities and needs. This shift has caused significant changes in the way Indian industries operate and function.

Revival of 'Make in India'

In these challenging times, an emphasis has been placed on boosting 'Make in India', a government initiative designed to facilitate investment, foster innovation, and protect intellectual property. The aim is to provide significant support to our local industries, including those producing defense equipment.

Initially, even if our domestic industries are able to fulfil only 70% of the General Staff Qualitative Requirements or GSQRs (which basically implies the acceptable standards for a product), they should be supported more than ever. The belief is that, when given the chance, these domestic firms will progressively manufacture state-of-the-art technology.

Unlike expeditionary forces, that are military forces deployed to fight abroad, India does not have a need to station its army globally. Therefore, massive imports by misjudging our practical necessities should not be a way forward.

Changes in the Economic Package

The Indian Finance Minister, in the economic package announced in response to COVID-19, stated significant changes in the defense sector policies. These changes marked the transformation of India's defense production and were aimed at empowering the 'Make in India' initiative.

Increase in FDI limits

A highlight of this package was the increase in the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) limit in the defense sector. The FDI cap has been elevated from 49% to 74%, which makes it easier for foreign companies to invest in the Indian defense industry.

Corporatization of Ordnance Production

The Finance Minister also announced the corporatization of India's ordnance factories. This means that government-owned ordnance factories producing defense equipment will now operate as corporations. This policy change targets increasing their efficiency and making them more competitive.

List of Banned Defense Imports

As part of the economic package, a list of banned defense imports was released. This move is seen as a strategy to boost local manufacturing and reduce dependence on foreign products, truly nurturing a self-reliant India or Atmanirbhar Bharat.

These amendments reflect India's shift toward a more self-sufficient defense sector and its commitment to encouraging domestic industries to ultimately deliver cutting-edge defense technologies.

Economic Impact of Pandemic on India

Words of Concern from Prominent Indian Business Leaders

In March, prominent business leader and CEO of Serum Institute of India, Adar Poonawalla, commented on the economic impacts of COVID-19 outbreak on India's economy. He suggested that the financial implications were drastically greater than the health hazards related to the disease.

The Dilemma: Health Crisis Vs. Hunger Crisis

Further echoing similar concerns, on 29th April, respected Indian billionaire and software mogul, NR Narayana Murthy, proposed a troubling scenario. According to him, if the imposed lockdown due to the pandemic was persisted with, the country could face a significant surge in fatalities not due to the virus, but because of increased starvation among the impoverished sections of society.

COVID-19 Impact on Indian Economy

The words of these influential business figures underline the profound impact the COVID-19 pandemic has had on India's economy. The lockdown imposed to curb the virus's spread brought economic activities across the country to a standstill dramatically affecting various sectors.

Though necessary for public health, these lockdown measures generated significant economic distress. Businesses, especially in travel, tourism, and hospitality sectors, faced severe losses. Millions of jobs were lost, increasing unemployment rates, and leading to a rise in poverty levels.

Government Response and its Implications

The Government of India, under the Disaster Management Act 2005, imposed the lockdown to prioritize public health. However, the severe economic implications necessitated fiscal and monetary measures.

Entities such as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervened by adjusting monetary policies, slashing interest rates, and announcing moratoriums on loan repayments. The government launched several initiatives for economic revival, with particular focus on aiding small and medium enterprises (SMEs) which form a significant part of the economy.

Current Scenario and Future Prospects

While such measures offered some reprieve, the economic recovery has been gradual and fraught with uncertainty. Policymakers are striving to strike a balance between public health and economic growth. As India eases lockdown restrictions and vaccinations continue, economic activities are slowly getting back on track.

Further complicating the predicament is the fact that both Poonawalla and Murthy's statements remain highly relevant. Their words urge us to not view health and economy as two separate entities; rather both are interconnected and a strategy combining the needs of both areas should be pursued. Policymakers must ensure that any attempts to revive the economy are sustainable and inclusive, taking into account not just the financial implications, but also the social and health impacts.

Indian Government's Approach Toward Wage Payment Amid the Pandemic

In India, governmental bodies and departments dealing with the contractual, casual, and outsourced employees were directed to treat them as "on duty" even during the lockdown in light of COVID-19. This order, issued by the Government of India, further indicated that the employees' salaries or wages would still be paid as if they were physically working. This instruction remained effective until April 30, 2020, to alleviate the financial burden from people's livelihoods amidst the unprecedented pandemic.

Concerns and Challenges in Wage Implementation During The Lockdown

However, the implementation of this directive faced considerable skepticism. Doubts arose concerning the continued payment of wages under the lockdown conditions, and the legality of such an order was put under scrutiny.

A significant challenge was the number of migrant workers in India who are generally daily-wage earners. These labourers often do not have formal ways to keep records of employment or wage payments, thereby complicating the implementation of the directive. Moreover, it generated uncertainty related to the government's ability to successfully enforce minimum wage laws during the lockdown, given the difficulties that have been faced even in regular times.

Supreme Court's Response to Non-payment of Wages

In response to the ongoing wage payment issues and concerns, on May 15, India's Supreme Court declared that employers could not be subjected to "coercive action" if they failed to pay wages during the lockdown period. The court's comment came while discussing the government's order dated March 29. The decision aimed at easing the potential burden on employers grappling with lockdown-induced financial difficulties. In this way, the legal stance related to wage payments during lockdown was clarified to some extent.

This decision, however, still left unanswered questions about the fairness of workers' compensation in these challenging times, showing that the economic fallout of the pandemic is complex, multi-faceted, and a hard nut to crack. It's clear the road to economic recovery and addressing the wage issue will require collaborative effort across sectors and thoughtful legislation.

Impact of Lockdown on Daily-Wage Workers

The lockdown drastically affected daily-wage workers including urban poor and migrant laborers, as they lost their regular work. The movement restrictions on public transportation like buses and trains further added to their difficulties. This resulted in large numbers of workers undertaking their journey back to their villages by foot.

Governmental Relief and Support

In response to these challenges, the central government in India issued a directive in late March. As per this directive, state governments established about 21,000 camps to house over 660,000 migrants in an attempt to prevent a mass exodus. The Delhi government, in particular, set up more than 500 hunger relief centers by the end of March. By 5th April, about 75 lakh people were receiving food through governmental and NGO-operated food camps throughout India. By 12th April, 37,978 relief and 26,225 food camps were functional. Migrants in the state of Kerala were also provided with essential medical supplies such as sanitizers, masks, and medicines.

Government-Level Fiscal Interventions

India's finance minister, Nirmala Sitharaman, announced a ₹1.7 lakh crore (equivalent to US$20 billion) spending plan to support the impoverished sector, soon after the lockdown measures were put in place. This plan involved the provision of cash transfers along with measures to ensure food security. For job provision and wage management, the government enhanced the average daily wages under Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) from ₹182 ($2.20) to ₹202 ($2.40), starting from 1st April.

On 14th May, FM Sitharaman declared a provision of free food grains for migrant laborers. The plan, worth ₹35 billion ($420 million), aimed to support an estimated 80 million workers.

Transportation Services and Subsidies for Migrants

From 1st to 27th May, the Indian Railways provided special train services to transport approximately 48,00,000 migrants back to their homelands. Although passengers initially had to pay a higher fare for this service, the central government later decided to subsidize 85% of the train fare, with the remaining 15% to be funded by the respective state governments. During the same time, a total of 91 lakh migrants traveled on trains and buses.

Law Revisions and Criticisms

In early May, the governments of Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat proposed temporary revisions to their labor laws. The primary reason was to attract industries and investment. However, labor unions criticized these changes, stating that they disadvantaged workers while providing employers with more power.

Welfare Schemes and Labor Market Challenges

On 20th June 2020, the government launched the Garib Kalyan Rojgar Abhiyaan to promote the welfare of returning migrants. Yet, in July, as per a report by Livemint, employers were struggling to bring back the workforce, despite offering incentives. Many labourers showed reluctance to return to urban areas due to concerns around their safety and job security.

Indian Economic Forecasts by Notable Agencies

Several prominent financial and economic agencies have released their specific predictions regarding the possible contraction in India's economy. They project a range of outcomes, which are mostly negative. These estimations reflect the potential economic downturn due to a multitude of factors, most significantly the ongoing global pandemic's impact.

1. Bernstein's Economic Forecast

Bernstein, a widely recognized financial research and management firm, has forecasted a 7% contraction in the Indian economy. Their estimation takes into account key indicators such as market conditions, current fiscal policies, and other economic factors specific to India. (Source)

2. ICRA's Economic Forecast

ICRA, or Investment Information and Credit Rating Agency of India (a part of Moody's Investors Service), predicts a slightly better scenario. They estimate India's economy to shrink by 5%. ICRA takes into consideration various factors such as fiscal policies, monetary flow, corporate balance sheets, and other financial indicators in the country. (Source)

3. Goldman Sachs' Economic Forecast

Goldman Sachs, a leading global investment banking, securities, and investment management firm, also estimates a 5% decline in the Indian economy. This forecast is based on their thorough analytical assessment of global economic conditions, India's domestic economic factors, and financial policies. (Source)

4. Nomura's Economic Forecast

Nomura, an Asia-headquartered global financial services group, aligns with ICRA and Goldman Sachs in their prognosis, estimating a 5% contraction in the Indian economy as well. This figure is a result of their careful evaluation of India's financial landscape, fiscal policies, and global economic trends. (Source)

5. Fitch's Economic Forecast

Fitch Ratings, an internationally reputed credit rating agency, has echoed Nomura, ICRA and Goldman Sachs with its forecast of a 5% contraction in the Indian economy. Their conclusions are derived from their wide range of credit market data, financial trends, and analytical expertise. (Source)

6. SBI's Economic Forecast

The State Bank of India (SBI), a renowned public sector banking and financial services statutory body, has a slightly more optimistic forecast, estimating a 4.7% contraction in Indian economy. SBI's forecast is based on a comprehensive analysis of financial trends, macroeconomic indicators, and banking factors specific to India. (Source)

7. CARE Rating's Economic Forecast

CARE Ratings, one of India's leading credit rating agencies, offers a forecast range. They predict a contraction of between 1.5 and 1.6% for the Indian economy, reflecting a more hopeful perspective on India's economic future. This forecast takes into account a host of elements such as credit market conditions, fiscal policies, and investor sentiments. (Source)

These forecasts provide valuable insights about the expected trends within the Indian economy. However, the scope and impact of economic outcomes are always subject to change, based on various factors like evolving global and national conditions, government interventions, and unforeseen events or crises.