Nagorno Karabakh Russian Peacekeepers Withdrawal

Following Azerbaijan's military gains, Russian peacekeepers have begun withdrawing from the Nagorno-Karabakh region. This mountainous territory, internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, was previously controlled by Armenian separatists. The withdrawal signifies a major shift in regional power dynamics and the conclusion of the Russian peacekeeping mission.

The Withdrawal of Russian Peacekeepers from Nagorno-Karabakh: A Deep Dive

The withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Nagorno-Karabakh in 2025 marks a pivotal moment in the long and complex history of the South Caucasus. It represents not only the end of a specific peacekeeping operation but also a significant realignment of regional power dynamics, a potential humanitarian crisis, and a test of the international community’s ability to manage and resolve protracted conflicts. To understand the full scope of this event, it is crucial to delve into the historical context, the key actors involved, the legal frameworks governing the situation, and the broader implications for the region and beyond.

The Genesis of the Conflict: A Historical Overview

The roots of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict lie deep within the history of the South Caucasus, a region marked by ethnic diversity, shifting empires, and unresolved territorial disputes. The region's strategic location, at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, has made it a battleground for various powers throughout history, including the Persian, Ottoman, and Russian empires.

Nagorno-Karabakh, meaning "mountainous Karabakh" in Russian, is a landlocked region within Azerbaijan, with a predominantly Armenian population. The area's historical connection to Armenia is significant; Armenians consider the region as Artsakh, a term that reflects their historical and cultural ties. These ties are evident in the numerous Armenian monasteries, churches, and cultural sites that dot the landscape.

The seeds of the modern conflict were sown during the late years of the Russian Empire and the subsequent collapse of the Tsarist regime. After World War I, the region was contested between Armenia and Azerbaijan, leading to violence and displacement. The Soviet Union, which established control over the region in the early 1920s, initially placed Nagorno-Karabakh under Armenian administration. However, in 1921, the Bolsheviks decided to incorporate the region as an autonomous oblast (region) within the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic. This decision, which many Armenians saw as a betrayal, set the stage for future conflict. The Soviet era, while seemingly freezing the conflict, did not resolve the underlying tensions. The Armenian population continued to press for unification with Armenia, while Azerbaijan maintained its control over the territory.

As the Soviet Union began to unravel in the late 1980s, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict reignited. In 1988, the Nagorno-Karabakh regional council voted to secede from Azerbaijan and join Armenia. This declaration triggered a wave of violence, pogroms, and ethnic cleansing on both sides. The conflict escalated into a full-scale war following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, with Armenia backing the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan seeking to maintain its territorial integrity.

The First Nagorno-Karabakh War, which lasted from 1988 to 1994, was a brutal and bloody conflict. Armenian forces, supported by Armenia, gained control of Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding territories, effectively creating a buffer zone. A ceasefire was reached in 1994, but a final peace agreement was never signed. The region remained in a state of limbo, with Nagorno-Karabakh operating as a de facto independent entity, though it was not recognized by any country, including Armenia.

Despite the ceasefire, the conflict remained unresolved. Sporadic clashes occurred along the Line of Contact, the area separating Armenian and Azerbaijani forces, and both sides continued to accuse each other of ceasefire violations. Diplomatic efforts by the Minsk Group of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), co-chaired by France, Russia, and the United States, failed to produce a lasting peace agreement.

The 2020 War and the Russian Peacekeeping Mission

The simmering tensions finally erupted into a large-scale war in the autumn of 2020. Azerbaijan, emboldened by its military build-up and supported by Turkey, launched a large-scale offensive to retake Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding territories. The 44-day war resulted in significant territorial gains for Azerbaijan, who used modern military technology including drones to overwhelm Armenian defenses. The conflict was marked by intense fighting, heavy casualties, and widespread destruction.

The 2020 war ended with a ceasefire agreement brokered by Russia in November 2020. The agreement stipulated that Armenia would cede control of territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh that it had occupied since the First Nagorno-Karabakh War. A Russian peacekeeping force of approximately 2,000 troops was deployed to the region to monitor the ceasefire and ensure the security of the remaining Armenian-populated areas of Nagorno-Karabakh. The agreement also provided for the opening of transport corridors, including a land route connecting Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan through Armenian territory.

The Russian peacekeeping mission was initially seen as a crucial element in maintaining stability in the region. However, the mission’s effectiveness was increasingly questioned over time. Azerbaijan continued to assert its sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh and gradually increased its pressure on the remaining Armenian population. There were reports of ceasefire violations, restrictions on movement and access, and humanitarian concerns.

Key Actors and Their Roles

The withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers is a complex event involving multiple actors, each with its own interests and motivations.

• Russia: Russia's role in the South Caucasus has historically been complex, driven by a desire to maintain influence in the region and prevent it from falling under the sway of Western powers. The presence of Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh served several purposes: it provided a means to exert influence over both Armenia and Azerbaijan, it prevented a full-scale conflict that could destabilize the region, and it allowed Russia to project its power in an area of strategic importance. The withdrawal of peacekeepers, therefore, represents a strategic decision, the motives for which are subject to debate. Some analysts suggest Russia may have reassessed its priorities in the region, focusing on other geopolitical challenges such as the conflict in Ukraine. Others suggest that Russia may have found it increasingly difficult to maintain the peacekeeping mission in the face of growing Azerbaijani assertiveness and a lack of support from Armenia.
• Azerbaijan: Azerbaijan's primary goal has been to regain control of Nagorno-Karabakh and its surrounding territories, which it considers its internationally recognized territory. The 2020 war achieved much of this objective, but the presence of Russian peacekeepers and the remaining Armenian population in Nagorno-Karabakh continued to be a source of tension. Azerbaijan has consistently asserted its sovereignty over the region and has taken steps to integrate it into its political and economic system. The withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers removes a significant obstacle to Azerbaijan’s full control over the territory.
• Armenia: Armenia's primary concern has been the protection of the rights and security of the Armenian population in Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia has historically supported the Armenian population in Nagorno-Karabakh, and the loss of the territory has been a major blow to Armenian national identity and security. The withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers has heightened Armenia's concerns about the fate of the remaining Armenian population in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Legal Frameworks and Agreements

The presence and withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers are governed by a complex web of legal frameworks and agreements.

• The Ceasefire Agreement of 2020: This agreement, brokered by Russia, is the primary legal document that defines the terms of the peacekeeping mission. It outlines the deployment of Russian peacekeepers, the territorial adjustments, and the return of refugees. The agreement also establishes the parameters of the peacekeeping mission, including its mandate, duration, and operational guidelines. The withdrawal of the peacekeepers is likely to be in accordance with the terms and conditions outlined in this agreement.
• International Law: The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh is subject to international law, including the laws of war and human rights law. These laws govern the conduct of hostilities, the treatment of civilians, and the protection of human rights. The withdrawal of peacekeepers does not absolve the parties to the conflict of their obligations under international law.

Processes and Procedures

The withdrawal of the Russian peacekeepers involves a series of complex logistical and political processes. These include:

• Coordination: The withdrawal requires close coordination between the Russian military, Azerbaijani authorities, and potentially representatives of the remaining Armenian population in Nagorno-Karabakh.
• Logistics: The withdrawal involves the movement of troops, equipment, and supplies. This requires careful planning and execution to ensure the safety of the personnel and the orderly transfer of responsibilities.
• Handover of Responsibilities: The Russian peacekeepers must hand over their responsibilities to the Azerbaijani authorities. This may involve the transfer of checkpoints, observation posts, and other facilities.
• Monitoring: International organizations or other actors may monitor the withdrawal process to ensure that it is conducted in a transparent and responsible manner.

Stakeholder Positions and Interests

The withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers has significant implications for various stakeholders, each with their own perspectives and interests.

• Russia: Russia's official position is to facilitate peace and stability in the region. However, Russia's underlying interests are more complex. Russia seeks to maintain its influence in the South Caucasus, prevent further instability, and protect its strategic interests. The withdrawal of peacekeepers could be interpreted as a sign of Russia's reduced influence in the region, or as a strategic recalibration of its priorities.
• Azerbaijan: Azerbaijan's official position is that it has regained control of its internationally recognized territory and that the presence of peacekeepers is no longer necessary. Azerbaijan's underlying interests are to assert its sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh, secure its borders, and integrate the region into its political and economic system.
• Armenia: Armenia's official position is to protect the rights and security of the Armenian population in Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia's underlying interests are to support self-determination for the Armenian population, maintain a strategic buffer, and prevent the complete loss of the territory.

Broader Implications and Consequences

The withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers has far-reaching implications for the region and beyond.

• Political: The withdrawal marks a significant shift in the power dynamics of the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan's influence in the region is likely to increase, while Russia's presence will diminish. This could lead to increased tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan and potential for further regional instability.
• Diplomatic: The withdrawal will affect relations between Russia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. It could also impact the broader geopolitical landscape, particularly the relationship between Russia and the West. International recognition of Azerbaijan's control over Nagorno-Karabakh will become more prevalent.
• Security: The withdrawal could lead to a renewed conflict. The Armenian population in Nagorno-Karabakh may face new security challenges, and there could be an increase in human rights violations.
• Humanitarian: The withdrawal could trigger a humanitarian crisis. The Armenian population in Nagorno-Karabakh may be displaced, and there could be a shortage of essential services.
• Economic: The withdrawal could impact regional trade and investment. The long-term economic prospects of Nagorno-Karabakh are uncertain, and the region may require significant reconstruction efforts.

Historical Precedents and Comparative Analysis

Examining other post-Soviet conflicts involving Russian involvement provides valuable context for understanding the withdrawal of peacekeepers from Nagorno-Karabakh. The cases of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia offer particularly relevant parallels.

• South Ossetia and Abkhazia: Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, both South Ossetia and Abkhazia, regions within Georgia with significant separatist movements, experienced conflicts that resulted in the de facto independence of these territories. Russia played a significant role in these conflicts, providing support to the separatists and eventually recognizing the independence of both regions. In 2008, Russia launched a military intervention in Georgia, ostensibly to protect its citizens in South Ossetia. This intervention resulted in the further consolidation of Russian influence in the region and the effective loss of Georgian control over South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The situation in Nagorno-Karabakh shares some similarities with the Georgian cases, particularly in terms of the involvement of a separatist movement, the role of Russia, and the unresolved status of the territory. However, there are also significant differences, including the ethnic composition of the population, the historical context, and the regional dynamics.

Connections to Broader Issues in Indian Foreign Relations

The events in Nagorno-Karabakh have implications for India’s foreign policy, particularly in the context of its relations with Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia.

• India and Russia: India and Russia share a long-standing strategic partnership, marked by close military, economic, and diplomatic ties. Russia has been a key supplier of military equipment to India. The withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Nagorno-Karabakh could be seen as a sign of Russia's reduced influence in the region, which may have implications for India's strategic interests.
• India and Azerbaijan: India has been developing closer relations with Azerbaijan in recent years, particularly in the areas of energy and trade. Azerbaijan is a significant source of oil and gas, and India is seeking to diversify its energy sources. The withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers could create new opportunities for India to deepen its engagement with Azerbaijan.
• India and Armenia: India has historically maintained friendly relations with Armenia, and the two countries share cultural and historical ties. India has provided humanitarian assistance to Armenia and has supported its efforts to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers could affect India's relationship with Armenia, as Armenia may seek greater support from other countries.

Future Outlook and Potential Scenarios

The withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers has created a new set of uncertainties and challenges for the South Caucasus. Several scenarios are possible:

• Continued Stability: Azerbaijan may successfully integrate Nagorno-Karabakh into its political and economic system, and the remaining Armenian population may be able to live in peace and security.
• Renewed Conflict: Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan could escalate, leading to a new round of fighting.
• Humanitarian Crisis: The Armenian population in Nagorno-Karabakh may be displaced, and there could be a humanitarian crisis.
• Increased Instability: The withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers could destabilize the region, leading to increased tensions and violence.

The future of Nagorno-Karabakh remains uncertain. The international community must remain engaged to prevent further conflict, protect the rights and security of all people in the region, and promote a lasting peace settlement. The events surrounding the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers are a stark reminder of the fragility of peace and the enduring challenges of conflict resolution in the modern world.