India Maldives Relations And The China Factor 2018

In early 2018, the declaration of a state of emergency in the Maldives by its President raised significant concerns for India, given the two nations' long-standing diplomatic and security ties dating back to 1966, following the Maldives' independence. A key example of this cooperation was Operation Cactus in 1988, where India provided crucial military assistance to suppress an attempted coup by rebels supported by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).

India maintains strong military connections with the Maldives, including the operation of helicopter bases and integrated radar and coast guard surveillance systems, reflecting India's aspiration to be a net security provider for the island nation. However, the recent declaration of emergency and perceived subversion of democratic institutions in the Maldives presented a complex dilemma for India. While some voices advocated for intervention, reminiscent of Operation Cactus, the critical difference lies in the absence of a formal request from the sitting president, with calls for assistance originating from opposition parties. Furthermore, any intervention would need to be carefully considered in light of the UN Charter's principles of non-intervention in sovereign nations' internal affairs and the 'Responsibility to Protect' doctrine, a global commitment endorsed in 2005 obligating states to protect their populations from mass atrocities. Adding further complexity, the Maldives has deepened its economic ties with China, signing its first Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with China and agreeing to participate in China's ambitious Maritime Silk Road initiative.

India-Maldives Relations in 2018: Navigating Political Turmoil and China's Ascendance

The year 2018 presented a complex and multifaceted challenge to India's foreign policy, particularly concerning its relationship with the Maldives. The declaration of a state of emergency in the Maldives in early 2018, coupled with the nation's growing alignment with China, created a delicate situation for India, demanding a careful balancing act between its strategic interests, historical ties, and commitment to non-intervention.

Historical Ties and Strategic Significance

The relationship between India and the Maldives is deeply rooted in history, geography, and shared strategic interests. The Maldives, an archipelago of nearly 1,200 islands in the Indian Ocean, holds immense strategic significance due to its location along vital sea lanes of communication (SLOCs). These SLOCs are crucial for global trade and energy flows, connecting the East and the West. Control or influence over these sea lanes translates to significant geopolitical leverage.

Formal diplomatic relations between India and the Maldives were established in 1966, following the Maldives' independence from British rule in 1965. Since then, the two countries have maintained close ties, characterized by cooperation in various fields, including defense, security, economic development, and cultural exchange. India has consistently been a reliable partner for the Maldives, providing assistance in times of need and supporting its development aspirations.

One of the most prominent examples of this close cooperation is "Operation Cactus" in 1988. In November of that year, a group of mercenaries, backed by a Sri Lankan businessman and supported by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), attempted a coup to overthrow the government of then-President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom. The Maldivian government appealed to India for assistance, and India swiftly responded by launching Operation Cactus. Indian paratroopers were deployed to Malé, the capital of the Maldives, and successfully suppressed the coup attempt within hours. Operation Cactus demonstrated India's willingness and capability to intervene in the Maldives to protect its government and maintain stability in the region. It solidified the perception of India as a reliable security partner for the Maldives and underscored the close strategic ties between the two countries.

Beyond Operation Cactus, India has provided extensive assistance to the Maldives in various other areas, including infrastructure development, healthcare, education, and disaster relief. India has also been a key partner in strengthening the Maldives' security capabilities, providing training and equipment to its defense forces. The establishment of helicopter bases and integrated radar and coast guard surveillance systems further exemplifies the security cooperation between the two nations. These initiatives are crucial for monitoring maritime activities, combating piracy, and ensuring the safety and security of the Maldives' vast maritime domain.

India's engagement with the Maldives is guided by its vision of being a "net security provider" in the Indian Ocean region. This vision entails contributing to the overall security and stability of the region by providing assistance, resources, and capabilities to other countries. India recognizes that the security of its neighbors is inextricably linked to its own security, and it is committed to working with them to address common challenges, such as terrorism, piracy, and maritime security.

The 2018 Crisis: A State of Emergency and its Implications

The political crisis in the Maldives in early 2018 was triggered by a series of events that raised concerns about the rule of law and the independence of the judiciary. In February 2018, the Supreme Court of the Maldives ordered the release of several high-profile political prisoners, including former President Mohamed Nasheed. The court also overturned the convictions of several other politicians who had been imprisoned on various charges.

The government of President Abdulla Yameen refused to comply with the Supreme Court's order, leading to a standoff between the executive and the judiciary. President Yameen declared a state of emergency, suspended several articles of the constitution, and arrested the Chief Justice and another judge of the Supreme Court. These actions were widely criticized by opposition parties, human rights organizations, and international observers as undermining democratic institutions and violating the rule of law.

The declaration of a state of emergency and the subsequent crackdown on dissent created a challenging situation for India. On one hand, India had a long-standing commitment to supporting democracy and the rule of law in the Maldives. On the other hand, India also had a strategic interest in maintaining stability in the Maldives and preventing the country from becoming a haven for extremist groups or a pawn in the geopolitical rivalry between India and China.

The opposition parties in the Maldives appealed to India for intervention, urging it to take action to restore democracy and the rule of law. However, India was hesitant to intervene directly in the internal affairs of the Maldives, given its policy of non-intervention and its respect for the sovereignty of other nations. Moreover, any intervention could have been perceived as an act of aggression and could have further destabilized the region.

The Dilemma of Intervention: Sovereignty vs. Responsibility

The situation in the Maldives raised complex questions about the limits of sovereignty and the responsibility of the international community to protect human rights and prevent mass atrocities. The principle of sovereignty, enshrined in the UN Charter, holds that each state has the right to govern itself without external interference. However, this principle is not absolute and is subject to certain limitations, particularly when a state fails to protect its own population from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing, and crimes against humanity.

The "Responsibility to Protect" (R2P) is a global political commitment endorsed by the United Nations in 2005 to address this tension between sovereignty and responsibility. R2P is based on the idea that each state has the primary responsibility to protect its own population from these four mass atrocity crimes. When a state fails to do so, the international community has a responsibility to assist. This assistance can take various forms, including diplomatic pressure, economic sanctions, and, as a last resort, military intervention.

The applicability of R2P in the context of the Maldivian crisis was a subject of debate. Some argued that the situation warranted international intervention to protect human rights and prevent further instability. They pointed to the government's crackdown on dissent, the arrest of judges, and the erosion of democratic institutions as evidence that the Maldivian government was failing to protect its own population.

Others argued that the situation did not meet the threshold for R2P and that intervention would violate the principle of sovereignty. They argued that the crisis was primarily a political dispute and that the government's actions, while concerning, did not amount to genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing, or crimes against humanity. They also argued that intervention could have unintended consequences and could further destabilize the region.

India ultimately decided against direct intervention in the Maldives, opting instead to engage in diplomatic efforts to encourage dialogue and reconciliation between the government and the opposition. India also expressed its concerns about the human rights situation in the Maldives and urged the government to respect the rule of law and the independence of the judiciary.

China's Growing Influence: A Strategic Challenge for India

Adding to the complexity of the situation was China's growing influence in the Maldives. In recent years, China has significantly increased its economic and political engagement with the Maldives, investing heavily in infrastructure projects and providing financial assistance to the government.

In December 2017, the Maldives signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with China, becoming the second South Asian country after Pakistan to do so. The FTA was seen as a major boost to China's economic influence in the Maldives and raised concerns in India about the potential for a shift in the Maldives' economic and political alignment.

The FTA with China was controversial in the Maldives, with some critics arguing that it would benefit China more than the Maldives and that it could lead to increased Chinese control over the Maldivian economy. Concerns were raised about the potential for Chinese companies to exploit the Maldives' natural resources and to flood the Maldivian market with cheap goods, undermining local businesses.

The Maldives also agreed to participate in China's ambitious "Maritime Silk Road" initiative, a component of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The Maritime Silk Road aims to develop maritime infrastructure and trade routes connecting China with countries in Asia, Africa, and Europe. The Maldives' participation in the Maritime Silk Road enhances China's strategic presence in the Indian Ocean and provides China with access to key ports and sea lanes. This has implications for India's maritime security and its ability to project power in the region.

China's growing influence in the Maldives is part of a broader trend of increasing Chinese engagement in the Indian Ocean region. China is seeking to expand its economic and strategic presence in the region to secure its access to vital resources and trade routes. China's growing presence in the Indian Ocean is seen by some as a challenge to India's traditional dominance in the region and as a potential threat to India's security interests.

India's Response: Balancing Act and Strategic Considerations

Faced with the political crisis in the Maldives and China's growing influence, India adopted a cautious and nuanced approach. India's primary objective was to maintain stability in the Maldives and prevent the country from becoming a source of instability or a pawn in the geopolitical rivalry between India and China.

India engaged in diplomatic efforts to encourage dialogue and reconciliation between the government and the opposition in the Maldives. India also expressed its concerns about the human rights situation in the Maldives and urged the government to respect the rule of law and the independence of the judiciary.

At the same time, India sought to strengthen its own economic and security ties with the Maldives. India provided financial assistance to the Maldives and invested in infrastructure projects. India also continued to provide training and equipment to the Maldivian defense forces.

India's approach to the Maldives was guided by a number of strategic considerations. First, India recognized that the Maldives is a strategically important country for India's security. The Maldives is located close to India's southern coast and is situated along vital sea lanes of communication. Any instability in the Maldives could have implications for India's security.

Second, India was concerned about China's growing influence in the Maldives. India did not want the Maldives to become overly dependent on China or to be used as a base for Chinese military operations in the Indian Ocean.

Third, India was committed to supporting democracy and the rule of law in the Maldives. India believed that a stable and democratic Maldives would be a better partner for India than an unstable and authoritarian Maldives.

India's approach to the Maldives was a balancing act between these different considerations. India sought to maintain stability in the Maldives, counter China's influence, and promote democracy and the rule of law. This was a difficult task, and India faced a number of challenges in achieving its objectives.

Key Terms and Concepts

Understanding the nuances of the India-Maldives relationship and the challenges it faced in 2018 requires familiarity with several key terms and concepts:

• Operation Cactus: As previously discussed, this military operation launched by India in 1988 to thwart a coup attempt in the Maldives underscores India's historical role as a security guarantor for the island nation. Its success reinforced the close security ties between the two countries and demonstrated India's willingness to act decisively to protect the Maldivian government.

• Net Security Provider: India's aspiration to be a net security provider in the Indian Ocean region is central to its engagement with the Maldives. This concept implies that India is committed to contributing to the overall security and stability of the region by providing assistance, resources, and capabilities to other countries. This includes maritime security, disaster relief, and counter-terrorism assistance.

• Responsibility to Protect (R2P): This global political commitment, endorsed by the United Nations in 2005, aims to prevent genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing, and crimes against humanity. It asserts that each state has the primary responsibility to protect its own population from these atrocities. When a state fails to do so, the international community has a responsibility to assist, potentially including military intervention as a last resort. The applicability of R2P in the Maldivian context was debated, highlighting the tension between sovereignty and the international community's responsibility to protect human rights.

• Free Trade Agreement (FTA): The FTA between the Maldives and China signifies a deepening economic relationship between the two countries and raises concerns for India. Such agreements aim to reduce or eliminate trade barriers, such as tariffs and quotas, to promote trade and investment. The Maldives-China FTA was viewed as a significant step in increasing China's economic influence in the Maldives and potentially shifting the country's economic and political alignment.

• Maritime Silk Road: A component of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the Maritime Silk Road focuses on developing maritime infrastructure and trade routes connecting China with countries in Asia, Africa, and Europe. The Maldives' participation in this initiative enhances China's strategic presence in the Indian Ocean and provides China with access to key ports and sea lanes, raising concerns about India's maritime security and its ability to project power in the region.

Organizations and Legal Frameworks

Several organizations and legal frameworks played a role in shaping the events of 2018 and influencing India's response:

• United Nations: As the primary international organization responsible for maintaining peace and security, the United Nations was a key actor in the Maldivian crisis. The UN Charter, particularly Article 2, outlines the principle of sovereign equality of all member states and non-intervention in the internal affairs of any state. However, the UN also has the authority to authorize intervention under specific conditions, such as when a state fails to protect its own population from mass atrocities. India's approach to the Maldives was influenced by its obligations under the UN Charter and its commitment to international law.

Historical Precedents and Stakeholder Positions

Understanding the historical context and the positions of key stakeholders is crucial for analyzing the events of 2018:

• Operation Cactus (1988): This event provides a historical precedent for Indian intervention in the Maldives. However, the current situation differed significantly, as the request for intervention in 2018 came from opposition parties rather than the sitting president. This raised questions about the legitimacy of intervention and the potential for unintended consequences.

Stakeholder Positions:

• India: India's official position was to balance its security interests with its policy of non-intervention. Underlying these interests were the desire to maintain stability in the Maldives, counter Chinese influence, and protect its maritime security. India took actions such as monitoring the situation closely and engaging in diplomatic discussions.

• Maldives (Government): The Maldivian government, under President Abdulla Yameen, sought closer ties with China for economic development. Its underlying interests included attracting investment and diversifying its economy. Actions taken included signing a Free Trade Agreement with China and participating in the Maritime Silk Road.

• China: China's official position was to promote economic cooperation and infrastructure development in the Maldives. Underlying these interests was the desire to expand its strategic presence in the Indian Ocean and secure access to key trade routes. Actions taken included investing in infrastructure projects and signing trade agreements with the Maldives.

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Broader Implications

The events of 2018 had a number of broader implications for the Maldives, India, and the region:

• Political: The potential for increased political instability in the Maldives remained a concern. The crackdown on dissent and the erosion of democratic institutions raised fears about the future of democracy in the country.

• Diplomatic: The crisis strained India-Maldives relations and created the potential for increased competition between India and China in the region. India's concerns about China's growing influence in the Maldives led to a more cautious and assertive approach to its relationship with the island nation.

• Legal: The debate over the applicability of the Responsibility to Protect doctrine highlighted the complexities of balancing sovereignty with the international community's responsibility to protect human rights.

• Security: The increased Chinese presence in the Indian Ocean posed a challenge to India's maritime security. India closely monitored China's activities in the Maldives and took steps to strengthen its own maritime capabilities.

• Humanitarian: The potential for human rights abuses and restrictions on democratic freedoms in the Maldives remained a concern. International human rights organizations called on the Maldivian government to respect human rights and the rule of law.

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• Economic: Increased Chinese investment and influence in the Maldivian economy raised concerns about the potential for Chinese control over key sectors of the economy.

Connections to Broader Issues

The events in the Maldives in 2018 were connected to a number of broader issues in Indian foreign relations:

• China's Belt and Road Initiative: The Maldives' participation in the BRI and the Maritime Silk Road highlighted the implications of China's growing economic and strategic influence in the region.

• India's efforts to counter China's influence: India's response to the crisis in the Maldives was part of a broader effort to counter China's growing influence in the Indian Ocean region.

• The political and economic stability of small island nations: The Maldives' vulnerability to political instability and economic dependence on China highlighted the challenges faced by small island nations in the Indian Ocean.

• India's 'Neighborhood First' policy: The crisis in the Maldives tested India's 'Neighborhood First' policy, which prioritizes close relations with India's neighbors. India's commitment to non-intervention and its concerns about China's influence created a complex dilemma for its approach to the Maldives.

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Future Outlook

The situation in the Maldives in 2018 underscored the challenges facing India in its foreign policy. The combination of political instability, China's growing influence, and the complexities of balancing sovereignty with the responsibility to protect created a difficult situation for India.

Looking ahead, the future of India-Maldives relations will depend on a number of factors, including the political stability of the Maldives, the extent of China's influence, and India's ability to balance its strategic interests with its commitment to non-intervention and promoting democratic values. India may need to reassess its approach to the Maldives, focusing on strengthening its economic and security ties, promoting good governance, and engaging in proactive diplomacy to counter China's influence. The Maldives, in turn, will need to navigate its relationship with both India and China carefully, seeking to benefit from economic opportunities while preserving its sovereignty and independence.