India China Relations Post Doklam Standoff

Following the Doklam standoff, India and China agreed to improve their bilateral relations. The Doklam standoff marked the first instance where India used its troops to protect Bhutan's territorial interests. The Chumbi Valley, due to its strategic location, is a key area of concern for India regarding Chinese activities. It connects India's northeast region to the rest of the country. Doklam is a strategically important 269 square km territory of Bhutan, which China has claimed since the 1980s. It is located between Tibet's Chumbi Valley to the north, Bhutan's Ha Valley to the east, and India's Sikkim state to the west. Important passes along the India-China border include: Aghil Pass and Chang La (J&K), Shipki La (Himachal Pradesh), Thaga La, Niti Pass, and Lipu Lekh (Uttarakhand), Nathu La and Jelep La (Sikkim), and Bum La and Diphu Pass (Arunachal Pradesh).

India and China: Navigating a Complex Relationship After Doklam

The year 2018 witnessed renewed efforts from both India and China to mend their strained relationship following the tense Doklam standoff in 2017. This incident, where Indian and Chinese troops faced off for over two months in a remote region of the Himalayas, brought the long-simmering border disputes and strategic rivalry between the two Asian giants into sharp focus. The agreement to move forward in their ties, while seemingly a simple diplomatic gesture, represented a significant attempt to de-escalate tensions and re-establish a working relationship, one that is crucial for regional stability and global order. However, the complexities inherent in the India-China relationship, rooted in historical grievances, territorial disputes, and diverging strategic interests, meant that the path to a truly normalized and cooperative relationship remained fraught with challenges.

The Doklam Standoff: A Flashpoint in Sino-Indian Relations

The Doklam standoff, which began in June 2017, served as a stark reminder of the fragility of peace along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the de facto border between India and China. The immediate trigger for the crisis was China's attempt to construct a road in Doklam, a plateau claimed by both China and Bhutan. India intervened militarily, citing its security agreement with Bhutan and its concerns about the strategic implications of Chinese construction in the area.

Doklam, or Donglang as it is known in China, is a strategically vital area. While it is Bhutanese territory, claimed by China, its location is critical for India's security. It lies close to the Siliguri Corridor, a narrow strip of land in West Bengal that connects India's northeastern states to the rest of the country. This corridor, sometimes referred to as the "chicken's neck," is only about 22 kilometers wide at its narrowest point. Chinese control over Doklam or the Chumbi Valley, which lies to the north of Doklam, would give China a significant military advantage, allowing it to potentially interdict India's access to its northeast.

The Indian intervention in Doklam was significant for several reasons. Firstly, it was the first time that India had explicitly used its military to protect Bhutan's territorial interests against China. This demonstrated India's commitment to its long-standing security partnership with Bhutan and its willingness to act as a guarantor of Bhutan's sovereignty. Secondly, the standoff highlighted India's concerns about China's growing assertiveness in the region and its willingness to challenge the status quo. China's road-building activities in Doklam were seen as a deliberate attempt to alter the territorial balance and exert greater control over the area. Thirdly, the Doklam crisis underscored the importance of the unresolved border disputes between India and China and the potential for these disputes to escalate into military conflict.

The standoff lasted for 73 days, during which time both sides deployed troops and engaged in heated diplomatic exchanges. The situation was finally resolved through negotiations, with both sides agreeing to disengage their forces. However, the Doklam crisis left a deep scar on the India-China relationship, raising concerns about the future of their ties and the potential for future conflicts.

Understanding the Geostrategic Significance of Doklam and the Chumbi Valley

The Doklam plateau itself is a relatively small area, covering approximately 89 square kilometers. However, its strategic importance far outweighs its size. As mentioned earlier, its proximity to the Siliguri Corridor makes it a critical area for India's security. Chinese control over Doklam would allow it to potentially cut off India's access to its northeast, which is home to several insurgency groups and is strategically important for India's regional influence.

The Chumbi Valley, which lies to the north of Doklam, is also of great strategic importance. The valley is a dagger-shaped piece of Tibetan territory that juts southward between Sikkim and Bhutan. Its location gives China a significant military advantage, allowing it to potentially outflank Indian defenses in Sikkim and threaten the Siliguri Corridor.

China's interest in Doklam and the Chumbi Valley is driven by several factors. Firstly, China views these areas as strategically important for its own security. Control over these areas would allow China to better protect its border with India and Bhutan and to project its power into the region. Secondly, China is keen to assert its territorial claims in the area. China claims that Doklam is part of its territory, and it has been building infrastructure in the area to assert its sovereignty. Thirdly, China is seeking to increase its influence in Bhutan. Bhutan is a small, landlocked country that is heavily dependent on India for its security and economic assistance. China is seeking to weaken India's influence in Bhutan and to bring Bhutan closer into its own orbit.

Key Border Passes Along the India-China Border

The India-China border is one of the longest and most heavily militarized borders in the world. The border stretches for over 3,488 kilometers, running along the Himalayas from Ladakh in the west to Arunachal Pradesh in the east. The border is divided into three sectors: the western sector, the middle sector, and the eastern sector. The western sector is the most disputed, with both India and China claiming large swathes of territory. The middle sector is relatively less disputed, while the eastern sector is also heavily disputed, with China claiming the entire state of Arunachal Pradesh.

Several important passes cross the India-China border, facilitating trade, pilgrimage, and military movement. These passes have been historically significant and continue to play a crucial role in shaping the dynamics between the two countries. Some of the key passes include:

• Aghil Pass and Chang La (Jammu & Kashmir/Ladakh): Located in the western sector, these passes are strategically important for connecting Ladakh with the Xinjiang region of China. The area around these passes has been a site of frequent border skirmishes between Indian and Chinese troops.

• Shipki La (Himachal Pradesh): Situated in the middle sector, Shipki La is a significant pass for trade and pilgrimage between India and China. It has been an important trading route for centuries, and it continues to facilitate the exchange of goods and people between the two countries.

• Thaga La, Niti Pass, and Lipu Lekh (Uttarakhand): These passes in the middle sector provide access to Tibet from the Indian state of Uttarakhand. Lipu Lekh has gained prominence in recent years due to its use as a route for the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra, a Hindu pilgrimage to Mount Kailash and Lake Mansarovar in Tibet. However, the construction of a road to Lipu Lekh by India has been met with protests from Nepal, which claims the area east of the pass.

• Nathu La and Jelep La (Sikkim): Located in the eastern sector, these passes are historically significant and have been used for trade and military movement. Nathu La was reopened for trade in 2006 after being closed for over four decades following the 1962 Sino-Indian War.

• Bum La and Diphu Pass (Arunachal Pradesh): Situated in the eastern sector, these passes are strategically important for connecting Arunachal Pradesh with Tibet. The area around these passes is heavily militarized, and there have been frequent border skirmishes between Indian and Chinese troops.

The control and management of these border passes are crucial for both India and China, as they serve as vital conduits for trade, pilgrimage, and military movement. However, the unresolved border disputes and the increasing military presence along the border have made the management of these passes a complex and sensitive issue.

Historical Context: The Shadow of the 1962 Sino-Indian War

The India-China relationship is deeply scarred by the 1962 Sino-Indian War. This brief but intense border war resulted in a humiliating defeat for India and left a legacy of mistrust and suspicion between the two countries. The war was fought over disputed territory along the Himalayas, with China claiming large swathes of territory in Arunachal Pradesh and Aksai Chin.

The causes of the 1962 war are complex and multifaceted. They include the unresolved border disputes, China's growing assertiveness under Mao Zedong, India's forward policy of establishing military posts in disputed areas, and the Cold War rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union. The war resulted in a Chinese victory, with China occupying Aksai Chin and forcing India to retreat from several areas in Arunachal Pradesh.

The 1962 war had a profound impact on the India-China relationship. It shattered the Nehruvian vision of a close and cooperative relationship between the two countries and ushered in an era of mistrust and hostility. The war also led to a significant increase in India's defense spending and a shift in its foreign policy towards a greater emphasis on national security.

Even decades after the war, the legacy of 1962 continues to cast a long shadow over the India-China relationship. The unresolved border disputes remain a major source of tension, and the two countries continue to view each other with suspicion and distrust. The war serves as a constant reminder of the potential for conflict between the two countries and the need for careful management of their relationship.

India's Strategic Interests and Concerns

India's primary strategic interests in relation to China revolve around protecting its territorial integrity, safeguarding its regional influence, and ensuring its economic security. India has several key concerns regarding China's actions:

• Border Disputes: The unresolved border disputes are the most significant source of tension between India and China. India claims that China occupies approximately 38,000 square kilometers of Indian territory in Aksai Chin, while China claims the entire state of Arunachal Pradesh. The frequent border skirmishes and the potential for escalation remain a major concern for India.

• China's Growing Influence in South Asia: India is concerned about China's growing economic and political influence in South Asia, particularly in countries like Pakistan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is seen by India as an attempt to encircle India and to undermine its regional influence.

• China's Support for Pakistan: India is deeply concerned about China's close relationship with Pakistan, which is seen as a strategic alliance aimed at containing India. China's support for Pakistan's nuclear program and its opposition to India's efforts to isolate Pakistan on the issue of terrorism are major sources of friction between the two countries.

• China's Activities in the Indian Ocean: India is concerned about China's growing naval presence in the Indian Ocean. China's construction of ports and infrastructure in countries around the Indian Ocean is seen by India as an attempt to project its power and to challenge India's dominance in the region.

• Cybersecurity Threats: India is increasingly concerned about the threat of cyberattacks from China. Indian government agencies and private companies have been targeted by Chinese hackers, and India is taking steps to strengthen its cybersecurity defenses.

To address these concerns, India has adopted a multi-pronged approach:

• Diplomatic Engagement: India has engaged in regular diplomatic talks with China to resolve the border disputes and to address other issues of concern. India has also sought to build trust and confidence with China through cultural exchanges and people-to-people contacts.

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• Military Preparedness: India has significantly increased its defense spending and has modernized its armed forces to deter Chinese aggression. India has also strengthened its military presence along the border with China.

• Strategic Partnerships: India has forged strategic partnerships with other countries, such as the United States, Japan, and Australia, to counter China's growing influence in the region. These partnerships are aimed at promoting regional stability and security and at upholding the rules-based international order.

• Economic Engagement: India has sought to deepen its economic ties with China, recognizing that economic cooperation can help to build trust and to reduce tensions. However, India has also taken steps to protect its economic interests from unfair competition from China.

China's Perspective and Objectives

China's perspective on its relationship with India is shaped by its own strategic interests and its vision for the region. China's primary objectives include:

• Securing its Borders: China is keen to secure its borders with India and to prevent any challenges to its territorial integrity. China views the unresolved border disputes as a potential source of instability and is determined to resolve them on its own terms.

• Expanding its Regional Influence: China seeks to expand its economic and political influence in South Asia and the Indian Ocean region. China's Belt and Road Initiative is a key component of this strategy, and China is using its economic power to build infrastructure and to forge closer ties with countries in the region.

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• Countering U.S. Influence: China sees the United States as a major rival and is seeking to counter U.S. influence in Asia. China views India's growing strategic partnership with the United States with suspicion and is concerned that India is becoming a tool of U.S. containment policy.

• Promoting a Multipolar World Order: China seeks to promote a multipolar world order in which China plays a leading role. China believes that the current international order is dominated by the United States and its allies, and it is seeking to create a more balanced and equitable system.

To achieve these objectives, China has adopted a range of strategies:

• Economic Diplomacy: China has used its economic power to build infrastructure, provide aid, and promote trade with countries in South Asia and the Indian Ocean region.

• Military Modernization: China has significantly modernized its armed forces and has increased its military presence in the region.

• Diplomatic Engagement: China has engaged in regular diplomatic talks with India and other countries in the region to promote its interests and to address concerns.

• Propaganda and Information Warfare: China has used propaganda and information warfare to promote its narrative and to undermine its rivals.

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Bhutan's Precarious Position

Bhutan, a small Himalayan kingdom nestled between India and China, occupies a uniquely vulnerable position in the complex geopolitical landscape of South Asia. Its foreign policy is deeply intertwined with its relationship with India, a historical protector and key economic partner. At the same time, Bhutan shares a border with China and is increasingly subject to Beijing's diplomatic and economic overtures.

Bhutan's relationship with India is governed by a Treaty of Friendship, which obligates India to provide security assistance to Bhutan. This treaty has been the cornerstone of Bhutan's foreign policy for decades, allowing it to maintain its sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of external threats. India is also Bhutan's largest trading partner and a major source of development assistance.

However, Bhutan is also aware of the need to maintain a working relationship with China. Bhutan and China do not have formal diplomatic relations, but they have engaged in border talks in recent years to resolve their territorial disputes. China has also offered Bhutan economic assistance and investment, which could potentially reduce Bhutan's dependence on India.

Bhutan's strategic dilemma lies in balancing its close relationship with India with its need to engage with China. Bhutan cannot afford to alienate either of its powerful neighbors, and it must carefully navigate the complex geopolitical landscape to protect its own interests. Bhutan's King has emphasized the importance of maintaining a "middle path" in its foreign policy, seeking to build good relations with both India and China without becoming entangled in their rivalry.

The Broader Implications of India-China Relations

The state of India-China relations has far-reaching implications for regional and global stability. The two countries are the world's two most populous nations and two of the fastest-growing economies. Their relationship will play a crucial role in shaping the future of Asia and the world.

• Political Implications: Improved relations between India and China could lead to increased cooperation on regional and global issues, such as climate change, terrorism, and economic development. However, continued tensions could undermine regional stability and could lead to a new Cold War in Asia.

• Diplomatic Implications: A stable and cooperative relationship between India and China could contribute to greater peace and security in the region. However, a breakdown in relations could lead to increased tensions and a greater risk of conflict.

• Economic Implications: Increased trade and investment between India and China could boost economic growth in both countries and could create new opportunities for businesses and consumers. However, trade disputes and economic competition could undermine economic stability and could lead to protectionist measures.

• Security Implications: De-escalation of tensions in the border region could reduce the risk of military clashes and promote regional security. However, an arms race between India and China could destabilize the region and could increase the risk of conflict.

Related Ongoing Issues

Several ongoing issues continue to shape the dynamics of the India-China relationship:

• Ongoing Border Disputes: The unresolved border disputes remain the most significant source of tension between India and China. Despite numerous rounds of talks, the two sides have failed to reach a comprehensive agreement on the border.

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• China's Increasing Influence in South Asia: India is concerned about China's growing economic and political influence in South Asia, particularly in countries like Pakistan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka.

• China's Belt and Road Initiative: India opposes China's Belt and Road Initiative, which it sees as an attempt to encircle India and to undermine its regional influence.

• The Tibet Issue: India has traditionally provided refuge to Tibetan refugees, including the Dalai Lama. China views this as interference in its internal affairs and has repeatedly called on India to stop supporting Tibetan separatists.

• Cybersecurity: India and China have accused each other of engaging in cyber espionage and cyberattacks. Cybersecurity is an increasingly important issue in the India-China relationship.

The Future Outlook: Uncertainty and Challenges

The future of India-China relations is uncertain. While there is potential for increased cooperation on regional and global issues, there are also significant challenges that could lead to renewed tensions and conflict.

The key factor that will determine the future of the relationship is the ability of India and China to manage their strategic competition and to resolve their border disputes peacefully. If the two sides can find a way to accommodate each other's interests and to build trust, then there is potential for a more stable and cooperative relationship. However, if they fail to do so, then the risk of conflict will remain high.

Several factors could contribute to increased tensions between India and China:

• Rising Nationalism: Rising nationalism in both India and China could make it more difficult to compromise on sensitive issues, such as the border disputes.

• Great Power Competition: The growing rivalry between the United States and China could exacerbate tensions between India and China, as both countries seek to align themselves with one side or the other.

• Economic Competition: Increased economic competition between India and China could lead to trade disputes and protectionist measures.

• Domestic Politics: Domestic political considerations in both India and China could influence their foreign policy decisions and could make it more difficult to pursue a cooperative relationship.

Despite these challenges, there are also reasons to be optimistic about the future of India-China relations. Both countries recognize the importance of maintaining peace and stability in the region, and they have a shared interest in promoting economic growth and development. The two sides have also established various mechanisms for dialogue and communication, which can help to prevent misunderstandings and to manage crises.

Ultimately, the future of India-China relations will depend on the choices that the leaders of both countries make. If they choose to pursue a path of cooperation and mutual respect, then there is potential for a more stable and prosperous future for Asia. However, if they choose to pursue a path of competition and confrontation, then the risk of conflict will remain high.