India And Central Asia Strengthening Connectivity And Strategic Ties In 2020

In 2020, India intensified its efforts to deepen diplomatic, economic, and strategic relations with Central Asian countries. Key initiatives included launching the India-Central Asia Business Council (ICABC), organized by FICCI, to promote trade and investment. Discussions also focused on establishing air corridors connecting India with Central Asian nations to facilitate faster movement of goods, especially perishable and agricultural products, reducing reliance on traditional routes through Iran, Northern Europe, or China. Additionally, India reaffirmed its commitment to regional connectivity by joining the Ashgabat Agreement—a transit corridor linking Central Asia with the Persian Gulf—and supported the development of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline, aimed at transporting natural gas across the region. These steps align with India’s Connect Central Asia Policy initiated in 2012, emphasizing political, strategic, security, and energy cooperation, and mark a significant push towards diversifying trade routes and strengthening regional influence.

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Introduction: A Strategic Pivot Toward Central Asia

The year 2020 marked a pivotal phase in India’s evolving foreign policy, emphasizing regional connectivity, economic integration, and strategic partnerships with Central Asian nations. These countries—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—are of immense geostrategic importance due to their proximity to Russia, China, and the Middle East, as well as their vast energy resources and critical transit routes linking Eurasia and the Persian Gulf. Historically, India’s engagement with Central Asia was limited post-independence, but since the early 21st century, especially after the launch of the Connect Central Asia Policy in 2012, India has increasingly sought to deepen ties through diplomatic initiatives, infrastructure projects, and strategic partnerships.

In 2020, this approach gained momentum with concrete steps aimed at enhancing regional connectivity—an essential aspect of India’s broader Eurasian strategy. The initiatives included launching the India-Central Asia Business Council (ICABC), proposing new transit corridors, and reaffirming commitments to existing frameworks such as the Ashgabat Agreement and the TAPI pipeline. These moves aimed to diversify India’s trade routes, bolster energy security, and counterbalance regional influence from China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Russia’s traditional sphere of influence.

The India-Central Asia Business Council (ICABC)

Organized by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI), the ICABC was launched as a platform to foster trade, investment, and economic cooperation between India and Central Asian countries. It was part of a strategic effort to formalize and expand economic ties beyond traditional diplomatic channels. The council aimed to identify sectors for collaboration including energy, infrastructure, pharmaceuticals, agriculture, and information technology. By establishing such platforms, India sought to facilitate business-to-business engagement, attract foreign investment into the region, and integrate Central Asian markets into India’s growing economic ecosystem.

Air Corridors and Transit Routes

One of the most ambitious proposals discussed in 2020 was the establishment of dedicated air corridors between India and Central Asia. These corridors would facilitate faster and more cost-effective movement of goods, especially perishable foodstuffs and agricultural products, thus reducing transit times and costs associated with current routes passing through Iran’s Bandar Abbas, China, or Northern Europe. Air corridors involve bilateral negotiations on flight rights, safety protocols, customs procedures, and aviation cooperation to ensure smooth operations.

India’s push for air corridors was motivated by the need to diversify trade routes and reduce dependency on traditional pathways, which are often affected by geopolitical tensions and logistical challenges. The development of such corridors would significantly enhance India’s connectivity with Central Asia, complementing existing land-based transit routes.

The Ashgabat Agreement and Regional Transport Connectivity

India’s accession to the Ashgabat Agreement in 2019 marked a significant milestone in regional connectivity. Originating in 2011, the agreement involves Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Afghanistan, with Pakistan and Oman as other potential participants. It aims to create an integrated transit corridor connecting Central Asia with Iran and the Persian Gulf, facilitating regional trade and energy cooperation.

In 2020, India reaffirmed its commitment to the Ashgabat Agreement, recognizing its strategic importance for enhancing regional trade, reducing transit times, and promoting economic integration. The agreement’s provisions include harmonizing customs procedures, establishing transit routes, and developing logistics infrastructure. India’s involvement also aligns with its larger vision of building alternative trade routes, reducing dependence on China’s BRI, and expanding its influence in Central Asia.

The TAPI Pipeline and Energy Security

Another cornerstone of India’s 2020 strategy was supporting the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline project. Launched in the early 2000s, TAPI aims to transport natural gas from Turkmenistan’s vast reserves through Afghanistan and Pakistan to India. This strategic energy corridor is crucial for India, which faces growing energy deficits and seeks to diversify its energy sources.

India’s backing of TAPI reflects its broader goal of securing energy supply lines, fostering regional stability, and countering China’s growing influence in Eurasia. Despite security challenges in Afghanistan and Pakistan, India remains committed to TAPI, viewing it as a vital component of regional economic integration and energy security. The project also symbolizes India’s diplomatic engagement with Afghanistan and Pakistan, emphasizing regional cooperation over conflict.

India’s Post-Independence Engagement with Central Asia

India’s engagement with Central Asia dates back to the post-Soviet era, after the independence of the Central Asian republics in 1991. During the Soviet period, India maintained limited contact with these states, primarily through cultural and diplomatic channels. After independence, India recognized the strategic importance of these nations for energy, connectivity, and regional stability. Early efforts focused on establishing diplomatic ties, assisting in development projects, and promoting cultural exchanges.

Over time, India sought to expand its influence through initiatives like the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), aimed at connecting India with Central Asia via Iran and Russia. The launch of the Connect Central Asia Policy in 2012 marked a deliberate strategic shift, emphasizing economic, political, and security cooperation. This framework aimed to counterbalance China’s BRI and Russia’s traditional influence, positioning India as a regional actor committed to inclusive development and connectivity.

Geopolitical Dynamics and Regional Competition

Central Asia’s geopolitical landscape is shaped by the competing interests of major powers. Russia continues to exert considerable influence, maintaining historical ties and regional dominance. China’s BRI has significantly increased its presence through infrastructure projects and investments, emphasizing connectivity and economic integration with Eurasia. The United States maintains strategic partnerships, especially in security and counter-terrorism.

India’s interest lies in establishing itself as a regional leader and facilitator, promoting economic development, and securing energy and transit routes. Its efforts are also driven by the desire to build strategic alliances that can help balance China and Russia’s influence. The region’s proximity to Afghanistan and Pakistan further complicates regional security dynamics, especially amid ongoing conflicts and insurgencies.

The Role of Multilateral Frameworks

The Ashgabat Agreement and TAPI are part of broader multilateral efforts to improve regional connectivity. The Ashgabat Agreement, signed initially in 2011, is a key framework for transit cooperation, aiming to create efficient, harmonized trade routes across Central Asia. India’s accession in 2019 marked its strategic desire to participate actively in regional integration initiatives.

Similarly, TAPI, initiated in the early 2000s, is a crucial energy pipeline project supported by multilateral financing agencies like the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Despite security challenges in Afghanistan and Pakistan, TAPI remains a symbol of regional cooperation and energy interdependence.

Diversifying Trade Routes

India’s push for new transit corridors and air routes is driven by the recognition that reliance on traditional pathways exposes it to geopolitical risks. The current routes through Iran’s Bandar Abbas are subject to U.S. sanctions and regional tensions. Overland routes via China or Northern Europe face logistical and political hurdles. Establishing direct air corridors and participating in regional transit agreements aim to circumvent these challenges, ensuring more reliable and efficient trade.

Enhancing Energy Security

Central Asia’s energy resources—particularly natural gas and oil—are vital for India’s growing energy needs. Supporting pipelines like TAPI and participating in regional energy cooperation frameworks aim to secure a steady supply of hydrocarbons. These initiatives reduce dependence on the Middle East and mitigate supply disruptions caused by geopolitical conflicts.

Strategic Balance and Countering Regional Influence

India’s engagement in Central Asia also serves a strategic purpose of balancing Chinese influence through BRI. By investing in infrastructure, connectivity, and diplomatic partnerships, India aims to establish a foothold in the region as a credible alternative to Chinese-led projects. This balances the regional geopolitical chessboard, allowing India to project influence and foster regional stability aligned with its strategic interests.

Indian Perspective

India views its Central Asia strategy as vital for economic growth, energy security, and regional stability. It emphasizes the importance of connectivity to integrate Central Asian markets into its own and to promote regional integration. India also seeks to counterbalance China’s BRI and expand its influence in Eurasia, aligning with its broader “Act East” and “Neighborhood First” policies. The initiatives like ICABC, air corridors, and participation in regional agreements reflect India’s commitment to long-term strategic engagement.

Central Asian Countries’ View

Central Asian nations seek economic development, regional stability, and new markets for their energy and commodities. They appreciate India’s interest in infrastructure development and trade diversification. However, they also navigate complex relationships with Russia, China, and neighboring countries, balancing their sovereignty with regional integration efforts. For them, India’s involvement offers alternative partnerships that can enhance their economic prospects.

Regional Security and Geopolitical Dynamics

The security environment in Central Asia remains complex. Ongoing conflicts in Afghanistan, insurgencies, and border disputes influence regional cooperation. India’s support for Afghanistan’s stability through projects like TAPI aligns with its broader security interests. Conversely, Pakistan’s competing interests and its opposition to certain projects influence regional diplomacy.

International and Global Impacts

India’s focus on regional connectivity in Central Asia fits within broader global frameworks such as the Indo-Pacific strategy and Eurasian geopolitics. It signals India’s desire to be recognized as a regional power capable of shaping security and economic policies. The initiatives also have implications for the global energy market, regional stability, and the balance of influence among China, Russia, and the West.

India’s Eurasian Strategy

India’s engagement with Central Asia complements its broader Eurasian policy, which seeks to build strategic partnerships across Asia and Eurasia. It underscores India’s shift from a primarily diplomatic engagement to proactive infrastructure and economic initiatives. These efforts are aimed at establishing a multipolar regional order where India plays a significant role.

The Ukraine-Russia-China Dynamic

India’s approach to Central Asia must be viewed within the context of Russia’s influence and China’s rising power. While Russia remains a traditional partner, India’s independent engagement illustrates its desire to diversify alliances. The region also serves as a buffer zone and a point of leverage in India’s relations with these powers.

Energy Security and Economic Diversification

India’s pursuit of energy corridors like TAPI aligns with its strategy to diversify energy sources and reduce reliance on Middle Eastern imports. It also reflects India’s broader move toward sustainable and resilient infrastructure development, integrated with regional cooperation.

Challenges and Risks

Despite the strategic initiatives, challenges such as security threats, internal political stability in Central Asian states, and regional tensions persist. The success of connectivity projects depends on overcoming geopolitical hurdles, ensuring security, and maintaining regional trust. India’s ability to navigate these complexities will determine the long-term viability of its Central Asian strategy.

Future Outlook: Opportunities and Challenges

India’s 2020 initiatives laid the groundwork for a more integrated and influential role in Central Asia. Future prospects include expanding transit corridors, deepening energy cooperation, and fostering people-to-people exchanges. However, these efforts will require sustained diplomatic engagement, infrastructure investments, and regional stability.

The evolving regional landscape, with China’s expanding influence and shifting geopolitical alignments, poses both opportunities and risks. India’s strategic focus remains on building resilient, diversified, and mutually beneficial partnerships in Central Asia, contributing to regional stability and economic growth.

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Note: This detailed analysis provides an extensive exploration of India’s initiatives and strategic interests in Central Asia during 2020, situating them within historical, geopolitical, and economic contexts. The focus remains on explaining the multifaceted aspects of India’s regional policy and its broader implications for Eurasian geopolitics.