Global Peace Index 2019 Reports Slight Improvement In Global Peace Levels Amid Indias Decline In Ran

The Institute for Economics & Peace, an Australian think tank specializing in peace and conflict research, released its 13th edition of the Global Peace Index (GPI) in 2019. This comprehensive report evaluates countries' levels of peace across three key domains: societal safety and security, the extent of ongoing conflicts (both domestic and international), and the degree of militarization. Notably, 2019 marked the first year in five that global peace showed improvement. Iceland maintained its position as the world’s most peaceful country, a status it has held since 2008, while Afghanistan became the least peaceful, overtaking Syria, which now ranks second. Conversely, India’s peace ranking declined from 136 in 2018 to 141 in 2019, reflecting growing security concerns within the country and its region.

The release of the GPI 2019 drew significant attention, not only because of the overall positive global trend but also due to India’s downward shift, which raised questions about internal stability, regional tensions, and security policies. The report’s findings are rooted in assessments of societal safety, conflict levels, and militarization, influenced by recent conflicts, peace initiatives, and security policies worldwide. This decline in India’s peace index ranking has prompted the government to review security strategies amid concerns over regional stability and internal security challenges.

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Introduction: Understanding the Global Peace Index

The Global Peace Index (GPI), compiled annually by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), is a comprehensive measure of peace across nations. Developed in 2007, the GPI ranks 163 countries based on quantifiable data that reflect levels of societal safety, ongoing conflicts, and militarization. The index serves as a vital tool for policymakers, researchers, and international organizations to assess security trends, identify vulnerabilities, and craft strategies for peacebuilding.

The GPI’s methodology involves aggregating data from multiple sources, including the Global Burden of Disease study, International Crime Victim Surveys, and data on military expenditure, arms imports and exports, and peacekeeping operations. The three core domains—societal safety and security, ongoing conflict, and militarization—are weighted and scored to produce an overall peace score, with lower scores indicating greater peacefulness.

Contextualizing the 2019 Findings

The 2019 report marked a rare positive trend after five consecutive years of declining peace levels. This suggests some global progress, driven by reductions in domestic and international conflicts, decreased violence, and efforts to curb militarization. Iceland, renowned for its low crime rates and peaceful foreign policy, retained the top position, emphasizing how societal stability and non-militarized diplomacy contribute to peace.

In stark contrast, Afghanistan's persistent internal conflict, terrorism, and regional insecurity kept it at the bottom of the index. Syria, embroiled in a prolonged civil war since 2011, maintained its second-lowest position, highlighting the enduring impact of civil conflict on national peace indices.

India’s decline from 136 to 141 underscores the complex security environment in South Asia. While India remains a major regional power with significant economic and strategic influence, internal security issues, border tensions, and regional conflicts have adversely affected its peace ranking.

The Institute for Economics & Peace

The IEP, headquartered in Australia, is the principal organization responsible for producing the GPI. Its role extends beyond ranking to include research on peace and conflict, development of peace metrics, and policy advocacy. The IEP’s assessments influence international discourse on security and peace-building, although they are subject to limitations such as data availability and methodological subjectivity.

Countries and Regions in Focus

• Iceland: Its high ranking is attributed to its political stability, low crime rates, absence of military forces, and peaceful foreign relations.
• Afghanistan: The country’s decline to the lowest peace ranking reflects ongoing conflict, insurgency, and insecurity exacerbated by foreign involvement and internal instability.
• Syria: Civil war, humanitarian crises, and external interventions have sustained its low peace score.
• India: The decline signals rising internal and external security challenges, including border tensions, insurgencies, and terrorism.

Broader International Actors

The United Nations and regional organizations such as SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) and ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) play roles in peace initiatives. Major powers like the US, China, and Russia influence regional stability through military, diplomatic, and economic strategies.

Global Peace Improvements

The global uptick in peace levels can be linked to:

• De-escalation in certain conflicts, such as reductions in violence in parts of the Middle East.
• Increased peacekeeping efforts and diplomatic negotiations.
• Global disarmament initiatives and arms control agreements.
• Socioeconomic development reducing the drivers of conflict.

Why Did India’s Peace Ranking Decline?

India’s decline is rooted in multiple intertwined factors:

• Border tensions with Pakistan: The prolonged Kashmir dispute, cross-border skirmishes, and military standoffs have heightened tensions.
• Internal security issues: Insurgencies in Jammu & Kashmir, Maoist violence in central India, and communal unrest have contributed to insecurity.
• Terrorism and extremism: Attacks by terrorist groups, including those linked to Pakistan, have challenged internal stability.
• Regional rivalries: Competition with China, especially regarding border disputes (e.g., Doklam, Galwan Valley clashes), influences India’s security environment.
• Militarization: India’s significant military expenditure (second only to the US globally) underscores its focus on defense but also raises concerns about arms races in the region.

Regional and Internal Dynamics

South Asia remains one of the most conflict-prone regions, with India and Pakistan’s longstanding rivalry over Kashmir. The 2019 Pulwama attack and subsequent Balakot airstrikes marked a period of heightened military engagement. Internally, issues like insurgencies, communal tensions, and political unrest further complicate India's security landscape.

In Afghanistan, decades of conflict, including the US-led invasion in 2001, have culminated in persistent instability. Despite peace efforts, Taliban insurgency, regional proxy dynamics, and internal governance challenges continue to impede peace processes.

Historical Background and Evolution of Peace Rankings

The GPI’s historical data reveal cyclical patterns influenced by major conflicts and peace initiatives. Post-2008 global financial crisis, some countries experienced spikes in violence, while others improved due to peace accords or democratic consolidations.

India’s peace index fluctuations often correlate with major security incidents, political changes, and regional developments. For example, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, the 2016 Uri surgical strikes, and the 2019 Pulwama attack significantly impacted India's peace scores.

Political and Policy Implications

India’s decline in peace ranking highlights the need for strategic shifts:

• Strengthening internal security mechanisms.
• Engaging in confidence-building measures with Pakistan.
• Enhancing counter-terrorism efforts.
• Investing in socioeconomic development to address root causes of unrest.

Diplomatic and Regional Relations

The peace index reflects underlying regional tensions that influence diplomatic relations. India’s perceived security environment impacts its foreign policy orientations, regional alliances, and engagement strategies.

Legal and Security Frameworks

While the GPI does not directly influence legal frameworks, its findings encourage adherence to peace-promoting treaties and multilateral security agreements. India’s participation in regional security dialogues and arms control initiatives can mitigate tensions.

Broader Security and Humanitarian Effects

Persistent conflicts, especially in Afghanistan and Syria, have humanitarian repercussions, drawing international aid and refugee flows. India's security concerns, especially regarding border stability and terrorism, impact its internal social fabric and regional stability.

Economic and Social Dimensions

Security challenges can hamper economic growth, foreign investment, and social cohesion. Conversely, improved peace can foster economic development and regional integration.

Regional Security Dynamics

India’s security environment is shaped by its immediate neighborhood, notably Pakistan and China. Border disputes, military build-ups, and diplomatic rivalries influence regional stability. The 2019 border clashes in Galwan Valley underscored the fragile peace in the Himalayan border regions.

India’s Strategic Partnerships

India’s engagement with the US, Japan, and Australia through initiatives like the Quad reflects efforts to counterbalance regional threats and promote stability. Its participation in multilateral forums such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS aligns with broader regional security strategies.

Counter-Terrorism and Non-Traditional Security

India’s efforts to combat cross-border terrorism and radicalization are central to its security policies. International cooperation, intelligence sharing, and counter-terrorism alliances are vital components.

External Influences and Proxy Conflicts

Regional powers like China and Pakistan influence conflicts in South Asia. China’s Belt and Road Initiative and infrastructure investments in Pakistan (CPEC) impact regional power dynamics, with India viewing these as strategic challenges.

Future Outlook and Policy Considerations

India is likely to prioritize security reforms, border diplomacy, and domestic counter-terrorism measures to improve its peace ranking. Diplomatic efforts to normalize relations with Pakistan and manage China’s rise will continue to shape India’s security landscape.

Global peace trends suggest cautious optimism. Continued conflict resolution efforts, arms control, and socio-economic development will be critical for sustained improvements. India’s role in these global initiatives will influence its regional standing and internal stability.

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Note: This in-depth analysis reflects broader issues of conflict, security, and diplomacy that define India’s foreign relations and regional stability, emphasizing the complex interplay of internal security, regional rivalries, and global peace efforts.