ASEAN 50th Anniversary And Related Events

The Philippines hosted the 50th-anniversary celebrations of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 2018. ASEAN, founded in 1967 by Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, aims to foster economic growth and regional stability among its member states, which now include Brunei, Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia, and Vietnam.

The summit in Manila coincided with other significant events, including the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) leaders’ meeting and the inaugural meeting of the India-U.S.-Japan-Australia quadrilateral. These meetings underscored the increasing importance of Southeast Asia in global geopolitics and economic strategy.

ASEAN at 50: A Crucible of Regional Cooperation and Geopolitical Shifts

The year 2018 marked a significant milestone in the history of Southeast Asia, as the Philippines played host to the 50th-anniversary celebrations of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). This event, held in Manila, served not only as a commemoration of ASEAN’s achievements over five decades but also as a crucial platform for addressing pressing regional and global issues. Concurrent with the anniversary celebrations were the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) leaders’ meeting and the inaugural gathering of the India-U.S.-Japan-Australia quadrilateral, colloquially known as the Quad. These parallel events underscore the increasing centrality of Southeast Asia in the evolving geopolitical landscape and its significance in shaping economic and security architectures in the Indo-Pacific region.

The Genesis and Evolution of ASEAN: From Cold War Bulwark to Regional Powerhouse

To fully grasp the significance of ASEAN's 50th anniversary, it is essential to delve into its historical origins and subsequent evolution. ASEAN was established on August 8, 1967, with the signing of the Bangkok Declaration by the foreign ministers of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. This inaugural act was born out of a shared desire to foster regional stability in the face of escalating Cold War tensions and the threat of communist expansion in Southeast Asia. The founding fathers of ASEAN envisioned a cooperative framework that would promote economic growth, social progress, and cultural development among its member states, while also safeguarding their sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The geopolitical context of the 1960s profoundly influenced ASEAN's initial trajectory. The Vietnam War was raging, and communist insurgencies were active in several Southeast Asian countries. The creation of ASEAN was, in part, a response to these challenges, providing a platform for regional dialogue and cooperation to address common security concerns. The early years of ASEAN were characterized by a cautious approach, focusing primarily on confidence-building measures and non-interference in the internal affairs of member states. This principle of non-interference, enshrined in the ASEAN Charter, has remained a cornerstone of the organization's identity, although it has also been a subject of debate and criticism in recent years.

Over the decades, ASEAN has undergone a significant transformation, expanding its membership and deepening its scope of cooperation. Brunei Darussalam joined in 1984, followed by Vietnam in 1995, Laos and Myanmar in 1997, and Cambodia in 1999, completing the ASEAN-10. This expansion reflected the changing geopolitical landscape and the growing recognition of ASEAN as a viable framework for regional integration. As ASEAN expanded, its focus broadened to encompass economic cooperation, trade liberalization, and investment promotion. The ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA), established in 1992, aimed to reduce tariffs and non-tariff barriers among member states, fostering greater intra-regional trade and investment flows.

The Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-98 served as a major test for ASEAN, exposing vulnerabilities in the region's economic architecture and prompting calls for greater financial cooperation. In response, ASEAN launched initiatives such as the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralisation (CMIM), a regional currency swap arrangement designed to provide financial support to member states facing balance of payments difficulties. The CMIM and other initiatives demonstrated ASEAN's commitment to collective action in addressing economic challenges and promoting regional financial stability.

In the 21st century, ASEAN has continued to evolve, adapting to new challenges and opportunities in a rapidly changing global environment. The ASEAN Community, comprising the Political-Security Community, the Economic Community, and the Socio-Cultural Community, was established in 2015, marking a significant step towards deeper integration and closer cooperation among member states. The ASEAN Community Blueprint outlines a comprehensive roadmap for achieving these goals, encompassing a wide range of policy areas, from economic integration and security cooperation to environmental sustainability and cultural exchange.

RCEP: A Quest for Regional Economic Integration

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a proposed free trade agreement (FTA) between the ten member states of ASEAN (Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam) and its six FTA partners: Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand. Negotiations for RCEP were formally launched in November 2012 at the ASEAN Summit in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. The primary objective of RCEP is to create the world's largest trading bloc, encompassing approximately 30% of the global GDP and nearly half of the world's population.

The rationale behind RCEP stems from the desire to consolidate and streamline the existing network of FTAs between ASEAN and its partners. Prior to RCEP, ASEAN had separate FTAs with each of the six countries, resulting in a complex web of overlapping rules and regulations. RCEP aims to simplify and harmonize these rules, reducing transaction costs and promoting greater trade and investment flows within the region. The agreement covers a wide range of areas, including trade in goods, trade in services, investment, intellectual property, economic and technical cooperation, and dispute settlement.

One of the key objectives of RCEP is to reduce tariffs on goods traded between member states. The agreement aims to eliminate tariffs on at least 90% of goods, with the remaining tariffs to be phased out over a period of time. This would significantly reduce the cost of trading goods within the RCEP region, making it more competitive and attractive for businesses. In addition to tariff reduction, RCEP also seeks to address non-tariff barriers to trade, such as customs procedures, sanitary and phytosanitary measures, and technical regulations.

RCEP also aims to liberalize trade in services, allowing service providers from member states to access each other's markets more easily. The agreement covers a wide range of services, including financial services, telecommunications, transportation, and tourism. By reducing barriers to trade in services, RCEP would promote greater competition and innovation in the service sector, benefiting consumers and businesses alike. Furthermore, RCEP includes provisions on investment, protecting investors from unfair treatment and ensuring that they have access to fair and transparent dispute settlement mechanisms. The agreement also aims to promote investment flows within the region, creating new opportunities for economic growth and development.

The negotiations for RCEP have been complex and challenging, reflecting the diverse economic interests and development levels of the participating countries. One of the main sticking points has been the issue of market access, with some countries seeking greater access to each other's markets than others. Another challenge has been the issue of rules of origin, which determine whether a product qualifies for preferential treatment under the agreement. Some countries have sought stricter rules of origin to protect their domestic industries, while others have favored more flexible rules to promote greater trade flows.

India's participation in RCEP negotiations was particularly significant, given its large economy and growing importance in the region. However, India ultimately decided to withdraw from the RCEP negotiations in November 2019, citing concerns about the impact of the agreement on its domestic industries, particularly agriculture and manufacturing. India's concerns included the potential for a surge in imports from China, which could undermine its efforts to promote domestic production and create jobs. India also raised concerns about the lack of adequate safeguards to protect its industries from unfair competition.

Despite India's withdrawal, the remaining 15 RCEP participating countries (Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam) signed the agreement in November 2020. RCEP entered into force on January 1, 2022, after being ratified by at least six ASEAN member states and three non-ASEAN countries. The entry into force of RCEP marks a significant milestone in regional economic integration, creating the world's largest free trade area.

The Quad: A Strategic Alignment in the Indo-Pacific

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, often referred to as the Quad, is an informal strategic forum comprising the United States, Japan, Australia, and India. The Quad is maintained through semi-regular summits, information exchanges, and military drills. It is widely viewed as a strategic alignment aimed at promoting a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific region and addressing shared security challenges, particularly in the maritime domain.

The origins of the Quad can be traced back to the aftermath of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, when the four countries came together to provide humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. This experience highlighted the potential for cooperation among the four countries in addressing regional challenges. In 2007, then-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe formally proposed the establishment of a quadrilateral security dialogue, bringing together the four countries to discuss issues of common concern.

The initial iteration of the Quad was short-lived, however, as it faced opposition from China, which viewed it as an attempt to contain its rise. Australia, under Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, also withdrew from the Quad in 2008, seeking to avoid antagonizing China, its largest trading partner. As a result, the Quad went into a period of dormancy for nearly a decade.

The Quad was revived in 2017, amidst growing concerns about China's increasing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region. The four countries recognized the need to strengthen their cooperation in order to promote a rules-based order and ensure freedom of navigation in the region's vital sea lanes. The revival of the Quad was driven by a number of factors, including China's growing military capabilities, its assertive territorial claims in the South China Sea, and its use of economic coercion against countries that challenged its interests.

Since its revival, the Quad has held regular summits and ministerial meetings to discuss a wide range of issues, including maritime security, counter-terrorism, cybersecurity, and humanitarian assistance. The Quad has also conducted joint military exercises, such as the Malabar naval exercise, which involves the navies of all four countries. These exercises are designed to enhance interoperability and demonstrate the Quad's commitment to maintaining maritime security in the Indo-Pacific region.

The Quad is not a formal military alliance, and it does not have a treaty-based obligation to defend each other. However, it is a significant strategic alignment that reflects a shared understanding of the challenges facing the Indo-Pacific region and a commitment to working together to address those challenges. The Quad's focus on promoting a rules-based order, freedom of navigation, and respect for international law is seen as a counterweight to China's growing influence in the region.

Each of the four Quad countries has its own unique interests and priorities in the Indo-Pacific region. The United States, as the world's leading superpower, has a long-standing commitment to maintaining peace and stability in the region. Japan, as a major economic power and a key ally of the United States, is concerned about China's growing military capabilities and its territorial disputes with Japan in the East China Sea. Australia, as a resource-rich country with close ties to both the United States and Asia, is seeking to balance its economic interests with its security concerns. India, as a rising power with a large and growing economy, is seeking to play a greater role in shaping the regional order.

The Quad's relationship with ASEAN is also important. The Quad countries have all expressed their support for ASEAN centrality, recognizing ASEAN's role as a key platform for regional dialogue and cooperation. The Quad has sought to work with ASEAN to address shared challenges, such as maritime security and counter-terrorism. However, some ASEAN countries have expressed concerns about the Quad, fearing that it could undermine ASEAN's centrality and lead to greater competition between the major powers in the region.

ASEAN's Centrality: Navigating Great Power Competition

ASEAN centrality refers to the organization's central and strategic role in the political, economic, and security architecture of the Asia-Pacific region. It is a principle that has been consistently emphasized by ASEAN member states and its dialogue partners, including major powers like the United States, China, Japan, and India. ASEAN centrality is rooted in the organization's long-standing commitment to promoting regional peace, stability, and prosperity through dialogue, cooperation, and consensus-building.

The concept of ASEAN centrality emerged in the aftermath of the Cold War, as the region sought to establish a new framework for regional cooperation that would be inclusive, non-confrontational, and based on mutual respect. ASEAN's success in promoting dialogue and cooperation among its diverse member states, despite their historical differences and varying levels of development, has earned it recognition as a credible and effective regional organization.

ASEAN centrality is manifested in a number of ways. First, ASEAN serves as the primary platform for regional dialogue and consultation on political and security issues. The ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), established in 1994, brings together ASEAN member states and its dialogue partners to discuss a wide range of security issues, including counter-terrorism, maritime security, and non-proliferation. The East Asia Summit (EAS), established in 2005, is another key forum for regional dialogue, bringing together ASEAN member states, its dialogue partners, and other major powers, such as Russia and New Zealand.

Second, ASEAN plays a leading role in promoting regional economic integration. The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), established in 2015, aims to create a single market and production base, allowing for the free flow of goods, services, investment, and skilled labor within the region. ASEAN has also been at the forefront of efforts to negotiate regional trade agreements, such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which aims to create the world's largest free trade area.

Third, ASEAN promotes regional norms and principles that guide the behavior of states in the region. The ASEAN Way, characterized by consensus-building, non-interference, and respect for sovereignty, has become a widely accepted norm in the Asia-Pacific region. ASEAN has also played a key role in promoting the principles of the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC), which emphasizes peaceful settlement of disputes, renunciation of the use of force, and cooperation in addressing common challenges.

ASEAN centrality is not without its challenges. One of the main challenges is the increasing competition between the major powers in the region, particularly the United States and China. As the two countries vie for influence in the Indo-Pacific, ASEAN runs the risk of being caught in the middle, forced to choose between them. Some ASEAN countries have expressed concerns about the potential for the region to become a battleground for great power competition, undermining ASEAN's centrality and its ability to promote regional peace and stability.

Another challenge is the diversity of interests and priorities among ASEAN member states. ASEAN is a diverse group of countries, with varying levels of development, political systems, and strategic orientations. This diversity can make it difficult for ASEAN to reach consensus on key issues, particularly those that involve sensitive political or security concerns. Some ASEAN countries may be more aligned with the United States, while others may be more aligned with China, making it challenging for ASEAN to maintain a unified position.

Despite these challenges, ASEAN centrality remains a vital principle for the region. ASEAN's ability to promote dialogue, cooperation, and consensus-building has made it a valuable platform for addressing regional challenges and promoting regional peace and stability. As the region faces new challenges, such as climate change, pandemics, and cyber threats, ASEAN's role in promoting regional cooperation will become even more important.

India's Act East Policy: Engaging Southeast Asia

India's Act East Policy is a strategic initiative launched in 2014 by the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. It represents a significant shift from the earlier "Look East Policy," which was initiated in the early 1990s. The Act East Policy aims to enhance India's engagement with Southeast Asia and the wider Indo-Pacific region, focusing on economic, strategic, and cultural dimensions.

The Look East Policy was initially conceived as a means of diversifying India's economic relations in the aftermath of the Cold War. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, India lost its largest trading partner and needed to find new markets for its goods and services. Southeast Asia, with its dynamic economies and growing middle class, emerged as an attractive destination for Indian businesses. The Look East Policy also aimed to strengthen India's strategic ties with Southeast Asian countries, as a way of countering China's growing influence in the region.

The Act East Policy builds upon the foundations laid by the Look East Policy, but it is more comprehensive and ambitious in its scope. The Act East Policy recognizes that Southeast Asia is not only an important economic partner for India but also a key strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific region. The policy aims to promote greater connectivity between India and Southeast Asia, through infrastructure projects, trade agreements, and cultural exchanges.

One of the key pillars of the Act East Policy is economic cooperation. India has been actively pursuing free trade agreements with ASEAN member states and other countries in the region. India is also investing in infrastructure projects that will improve connectivity between India and Southeast Asia, such as the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway and the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project. These projects will facilitate trade and investment flows between India and Southeast Asia, boosting economic growth in both regions.

Another important pillar of the Act East Policy is strategic cooperation. India is working with Southeast Asian countries to address shared security challenges, such as maritime security, counter-terrorism, and cybersecurity. India is also participating in joint military exercises with Southeast Asian countries, enhancing interoperability and building trust. The Act East Policy recognizes the importance of maintaining a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific region, and India is working with its partners to ensure freedom of navigation and respect for international law.

The Act East Policy also emphasizes cultural exchanges and people-to-people connections. India has a long history of cultural ties with Southeast Asia, and the Act East Policy seeks to strengthen these ties through educational programs, tourism promotion, and cultural events. India is also promoting the study of Indian languages and culture in Southeast Asian countries, and vice versa. These cultural exchanges will help to build understanding and trust between India and Southeast Asia, fostering closer relations.

The Act East Policy is not without its challenges. One of the main challenges is the slow pace of implementation of infrastructure projects. Many of the projects that are planned under the Act East Policy have been delayed due to bureaucratic hurdles, land acquisition problems, and funding constraints. Another challenge is the lack of awareness about the Act East Policy among Indian businesses. Many Indian businesses are still not fully aware of the opportunities that are available in Southeast Asia, and they need to be better informed about the Act East Policy and its benefits.

Despite these challenges, the Act East Policy has the potential to transform India's relations with Southeast Asia. The policy provides a framework for closer economic, strategic, and cultural cooperation, and it is helping to build a stronger and more prosperous Indo-Pacific region. As India continues to grow and develop, its engagement with Southeast Asia will become even more important, and the Act East Policy will play a key role in shaping that engagement.

The South China Sea Disputes: A Regional Flashpoint

The South China Sea is a strategically important waterway that is claimed in whole or in part by several countries, including China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan. The disputes over the South China Sea have been a source of tension and instability in the region for decades, and they have become increasingly prominent in recent years, as China has asserted its claims more aggressively.

China claims the vast majority of the South China Sea, based on its so-called "nine-dash line," which encompasses almost the entire sea. China argues that it has historical rights to the South China Sea, dating back centuries. However, other countries in the region reject China's claims, arguing that they are inconsistent with international law, particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

UNCLOS sets out the legal framework for maritime zones and activities. Under UNCLOS, coastal states have the right to an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) extending 200 nautical miles from their coastlines. Within their EEZs, coastal states have the right to exploit natural resources, such as fish and oil, and to regulate activities such as shipping and fishing. China's nine-dash line overlaps with the EEZs of several other countries, leading to disputes over maritime rights and resources.

In recent years, China has taken steps to assert its claims in the South China Sea, including building artificial islands on disputed reefs and shoals. These artificial islands have been equipped with military facilities, such as runways, radar stations, and missile batteries. China's actions have raised concerns among other countries in the region, as well as the United States, which has accused China of militarizing the South China Sea and undermining freedom of navigation.

The United States has repeatedly asserted its right to conduct freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) in the South China Sea, sending warships and aircraft through the area to challenge China's claims. China has protested these operations, arguing that they violate its sovereignty and undermine regional stability. The disputes over the South China Sea have also led to confrontations between Chinese and Vietnamese ships, as well as between Chinese and Philippine ships.

The disputes over the South China Sea are not only about maritime rights and resources. They are also about regional power and influence. China sees the South China Sea as a key strategic asset, and it is determined to assert its control over the area. Other countries in the region are concerned about China's growing power and its willingness to use that power to assert its claims. The United States sees the South China Sea as a test of its ability to maintain a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific region, and it is determined to push back against China's efforts to dominate the area.

The disputes over the South China Sea have significant implications for regional security and stability. They have the potential to escalate into armed conflict, and they are undermining trust and cooperation among countries in the region. The disputes are also affecting economic activity in the South China Sea, as countries are hesitant to invest in the area due to the risk of conflict.

ASEAN has been trying to mediate the disputes over the South China Sea, but it has had limited success. ASEAN has called for a peaceful resolution of the disputes, based on international law, and it has been working to develop a code of conduct for the South China Sea. However, China has been reluctant to engage in meaningful negotiations on a code of conduct, and it has resisted efforts to involve outside parties in the disputes.

The disputes over the South China Sea are likely to continue to be a source of tension and instability in the region for the foreseeable future. A peaceful resolution of the disputes will require a willingness from all parties to compromise and to respect international law. It will also require a commitment to dialogue and cooperation, and a recognition that the South China Sea is a shared resource that should be managed for the benefit of all.

The convergence of ASEAN's 50th anniversary, the RCEP negotiations, and the Quad meeting in 2018 underscores the complex interplay of economic, political, and security interests shaping the Indo-Pacific region. These events highlight the challenges and opportunities facing ASEAN as it navigates great power competition and seeks to maintain its centrality in the regional architecture. They also reflect the evolving strategic landscape, with India playing an increasingly active role in promoting regional stability and economic integration through its Act East Policy. The future of the Indo-Pacific will depend on the ability of all stakeholders to work together to promote a rules-based order, ensure freedom of navigation, and address shared challenges in a spirit of cooperation and mutual respect.