1st India Central Asia Dialogue

The first India-Central Asia Dialogue convened in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, bringing together the External Affairs Ministers of India, Afghanistan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan. Co-chaired by the Indian Minister of External Affairs, the summit focused on enhancing economic and policy coordination among the participating nations. India proposed the creation of a Regional Development Group to streamline these efforts and suggested initiating discussions on establishing air corridors with the landlocked Central Asian countries.

India's engagement with Central Asia includes a range of strategic and economic initiatives. Its only foreign military airbase is located in Farkhor, Tajikistan, operated jointly with the Tajik Air Force. Furthermore, India and Uzbekistan have entered into an agreement for the long-term supply of uranium, making Uzbekistan the second Central Asian country, after Kazakhstan, to provide this resource to India. These efforts are underpinned by the 'Connect Central Asia Policy,' launched in 2012, which prioritizes strengthening political relations, strategic and security cooperation, and fostering long-term partnerships in the energy and natural resources sectors. India has also joined the Ashgabat Agreement, an international transport and transit corridor, and is involved in the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) Pipeline project. Additionally, India is in negotiations for a comprehensive economic partnership agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). The Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation (ITEC) Programme further supports these initiatives by providing training and human capacity development for young professionals from Central Asian countries.

India's Central Asia Engagement: A Deep Dive into Geopolitics, Economics, and Connectivity

The inaugural India-Central Asia Dialogue in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, marked a significant milestone in India's intensified efforts to forge stronger ties with the strategically vital Central Asian region. This ministerial-level summit was not merely a ceremonial gathering; it represented a concrete step towards realizing India's long-term vision of a robust and multifaceted partnership with these nations. The dialogue's agenda, focusing on economic cooperation, policy coordination, and enhanced connectivity, underscored India's strategic priorities in the region, reflecting a proactive approach to counter emerging geopolitical challenges and secure its economic interests. The presence of the External Affairs Ministers from Afghanistan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan, highlighted the collective commitment to fostering a collaborative framework for regional development and stability.

India's historical ties with Central Asia are deeply rooted in the ancient Silk Road, a network of trade routes that facilitated the exchange of goods, ideas, and cultural influences between the East and the West. For centuries, these routes served as conduits for commerce, connecting India with the markets of Central Asia and beyond. The Silk Road's legacy is evident in the shared cultural heritage, linguistic similarities, and historical connections that continue to bind India and Central Asia. In the post-Soviet era, India recognized the strategic importance of Central Asia as a region rich in natural resources, particularly energy, and as a gateway to the Eurasian landmass. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 presented India with a unique opportunity to establish diplomatic relations with the newly independent Central Asian states and to forge partnerships based on mutual interests.

The "Connect Central Asia Policy," launched in 2012, serves as the cornerstone of India's engagement with the region. This comprehensive policy framework outlines India's strategic objectives, which include strengthening political relations, promoting economic cooperation, enhancing security collaboration, and fostering cultural exchanges. The policy recognizes the unique challenges and opportunities that exist in Central Asia and seeks to address them through a multi-pronged approach. One of the key objectives of the Connect Central Asia Policy is to counter China's growing influence in the region. China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a massive infrastructure development project that aims to connect China with Central Asia, Europe, and Africa, has raised concerns in India about China's expanding economic and strategic footprint. India views the BRI as a potential tool for China to exert its dominance in the region and to undermine India's own interests.

The Connect Central Asia Policy also seeks to secure access to Central Asian energy resources. The region is rich in oil, natural gas, and uranium, which are essential for India's growing energy needs. India has been actively pursuing energy partnerships with Central Asian countries, including Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, to diversify its energy sources and to reduce its dependence on Middle Eastern oil. The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) Pipeline project is a prime example of India's efforts to secure access to Central Asian natural gas. This ambitious project aims to transport natural gas from Turkmenistan's Galkynysh gas field, one of the world's largest, through Afghanistan and Pakistan to India. However, the TAPI Pipeline project has faced numerous challenges, including security concerns in Afghanistan, geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan, and financing difficulties. Despite these challenges, India remains committed to the TAPI Pipeline project, viewing it as a crucial component of its energy security strategy.

Beyond energy, India is also keen to enhance trade and investment ties with Central Asia. The region offers a large and growing market for Indian goods and services. India's exports to Central Asia include pharmaceuticals, machinery, textiles, and agricultural products, while its imports from the region include minerals, metals, and cotton. India is also seeking to invest in Central Asian infrastructure projects, such as roads, railways, and power plants, to improve connectivity and to facilitate trade. The Ashgabat Agreement, an international transport and transit corridor agreement, is a key component of India's efforts to enhance connectivity with Central Asia. The Ashgabat Agreement aims to establish a seamless transport network linking Central Asia with the Persian Gulf and India. By joining the Ashgabat Agreement, India has gained access to a direct trade route to Central Asia, bypassing Pakistan, which has historically been a major obstacle to India's trade with the region.

The India-Central Asia Dialogue also addressed the issue of regional security. Central Asia faces a number of security challenges, including terrorism, extremism, drug trafficking, and border disputes. India has been working with Central Asian countries to enhance their security capabilities and to promote regional stability. India provides training and equipment to Central Asian security forces and participates in joint military exercises. India also supports regional security initiatives, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), which aims to promote cooperation among member states in the areas of security, economics, and culture. Afghanistan's security situation is of particular concern to India. The ongoing conflict in Afghanistan has the potential to destabilize the entire region and to create a safe haven for terrorist groups. India has been providing assistance to Afghanistan in its efforts to combat terrorism and to build a stable and democratic society. India also supports the Afghan government's efforts to negotiate a peace settlement with the Taliban.

India's presence in Farkhor, Tajikistan, with its only foreign military airbase, underscores the security dimension of its Central Asia policy. This airbase, operated jointly by the Indian Air Force (IAF) and the Tajik Air Force, serves as a strategic asset for India, allowing it to monitor regional developments and to respond to potential security threats. The Farkhor airbase also provides India with a valuable platform for conducting counter-terrorism operations and for providing humanitarian assistance in the region. The establishment of the Farkhor airbase reflects India's commitment to playing a proactive role in maintaining regional security and stability.

The Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation (ITEC) Programme is another important component of India's engagement with Central Asia. The ITEC Programme provides training and capacity building to professionals from Central Asian countries in a wide range of fields, including agriculture, education, healthcare, and information technology. The ITEC Programme aims to promote human resource development in Central Asia and to foster goodwill and understanding between India and the region. The programme is highly valued by Central Asian countries, as it provides them with access to India's expertise and technology.

India's engagement with Central Asia is not without its challenges. One of the main challenges is the lack of direct land connectivity between India and Central Asia. Pakistan's refusal to allow India to use its territory for transit trade has been a major obstacle to India's efforts to enhance connectivity with the region. India has been exploring alternative routes to Central Asia, such as the Chabahar Port in Iran, which provides India with access to Afghanistan and Central Asia via sea and land routes. However, the Chabahar Port project has faced delays due to US sanctions on Iran. Another challenge is the competition from China, which has been investing heavily in Central Asian infrastructure and energy projects. China's economic influence in the region is growing rapidly, and India needs to step up its efforts to compete with China.

Despite these challenges, India remains committed to strengthening its ties with Central Asia. The region is of strategic importance to India, and India believes that a strong and stable Central Asia is essential for its own security and prosperity. India's engagement with Central Asia is based on the principles of mutual respect, equality, and non-interference. India seeks to build a long-term and mutually beneficial partnership with Central Asian countries, based on shared interests and common values. The India-Central Asia Dialogue is a testament to India's commitment to strengthening its ties with the region. The dialogue provides a valuable platform for India and Central Asian countries to discuss issues of mutual interest and to explore opportunities for cooperation. The inaugural dialogue in Samarkand was a success, and India hopes that it will become a regular event.

The geopolitical landscape of Central Asia is intricately shaped by the presence and influence of various regional and global powers. Russia, historically dominant in the region, continues to exert significant influence through its economic, military, and cultural ties with the Central Asian states. China's economic footprint has grown exponentially in recent years, driven by its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which aims to connect China with Central Asia and beyond through a network of infrastructure projects. The United States, while maintaining a lower profile compared to Russia and China, has also been engaged in Central Asia, primarily focusing on security cooperation and counter-terrorism efforts. India's engagement with Central Asia is aimed at carving out its own space in this complex geopolitical landscape. India's approach is characterized by a focus on economic cooperation, connectivity projects, and cultural exchanges, rather than military alliances or political interference. India seeks to build a strong and mutually beneficial partnership with Central Asian countries, based on shared interests and common values.

The Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), comprising Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia, and Kyrgyzstan, is another important factor shaping the economic landscape of Central Asia. The EEU aims to promote economic integration among its member states through the establishment of a common market and a customs union. India is currently negotiating a comprehensive economic partnership agreement with the EEU, which could significantly boost trade and investment between the two regions. A trade agreement with the EEU would provide India with access to a large and growing market in Eurasia, while also providing the EEU member states with access to India's vast market and technological expertise.

The security situation in Afghanistan remains a major concern for India and Central Asia. The ongoing conflict in Afghanistan has the potential to destabilize the entire region and to create a safe haven for terrorist groups. India has been working with Central Asian countries to enhance their security capabilities and to promote regional stability. India also supports the Afghan government's efforts to negotiate a peace settlement with the Taliban. The outcome of the peace process in Afghanistan will have a significant impact on the security and stability of Central Asia.

The competition for energy resources in Central Asia is another key factor shaping the region's geopolitics. Central Asia is rich in oil, natural gas, and uranium, which are essential for the energy security of many countries. India, China, Russia, and other countries are all vying for access to Central Asian energy resources. The TAPI Pipeline project is a prime example of the competition for energy resources in the region. The project has been plagued by delays and security concerns, but it remains a key priority for India, which seeks to secure access to Turkmen natural gas.

India's historical connections with Central Asia, dating back to the Silk Road era, provide a strong foundation for its current engagement with the region. The Silk Road facilitated trade, cultural exchange, and the spread of Buddhism between India and Central Asia. Many Central Asian cities, such as Samarkand and Bukhara, were important centers of learning and culture during the Silk Road era, and they attracted scholars and traders from all over the world. India's support for Central Asian independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union further strengthened its ties with the region. India was one of the first countries to recognize the independence of the Central Asian states, and it has been a strong supporter of their sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Looking ahead, increased cooperation between India and Central Asia is expected in areas such as trade, energy, security, and infrastructure development. India is committed to working with Central Asian countries to promote regional stability and prosperity. The India-Central Asia Dialogue is expected to become a regular event, providing a valuable platform for India and Central Asian countries to discuss issues of mutual interest and to explore opportunities for cooperation. India's engagement with Central Asia is a long-term strategic priority, and India is committed to building a strong and mutually beneficial partnership with the region.

The legal frameworks governing India's engagement with Central Asia are primarily based on bilateral agreements and international treaties. The Ashgabat Agreement, signed in 2011 and acceded to by India in 2018, is a significant legal instrument that facilitates the establishment of an international transport and transit corridor between Central Asia and the Persian Gulf. This agreement streamlines customs procedures, reduces transit times, and promotes trade and investment among the participating countries. India's accession to the Ashgabat Agreement demonstrates its commitment to enhancing connectivity with Central Asia and to diversifying its trade routes.

Bilateral investment treaties (BITs) and double taxation avoidance agreements (DTAAs) are also important legal frameworks that govern India's economic relations with Central Asian countries. BITs provide protection to Indian investments in Central Asia and vice versa, while DTAAs prevent double taxation of income earned by Indian companies in Central Asia and vice versa. These agreements create a favorable investment climate and promote cross-border investment flows.

India's participation in regional organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) also provides a legal framework for its engagement with Central Asia. The SCO promotes cooperation among member states in the areas of security, economics, and culture. India's membership in the SCO allows it to participate in regional security initiatives and to coordinate its policies with other member states on issues of mutual interest.

The stakeholder positions regarding India's engagement with Central Asia are diverse and reflect the varying interests and priorities of the different actors involved. India's official position is that it is committed to strengthening ties with Central Asia and to promoting regional stability and economic growth. India's underlying interests include securing access to energy resources, countering China's influence, and expanding its economic and strategic footprint in the region. To achieve these objectives, India has launched the Connect Central Asia Policy, acceded to the Ashgabat Agreement, and is negotiating a trade agreement with the EEU.

Central Asian countries, on the other hand, are seeking to diversify their economic and political partnerships and to attract foreign investment. Their underlying interests include accessing new markets, securing infrastructure development, and maintaining their independence from regional powers. To achieve these objectives, they are participating in the India-Central Asia Dialogue and exploring opportunities for cooperation with India.

China's position on India's engagement with Central Asia is complex and nuanced. On the one hand, China welcomes increased economic activity in the region and recognizes the potential benefits of India's investment in infrastructure and connectivity projects. On the other hand, China is wary of India's growing influence in Central Asia and views it as a potential competitor for regional dominance. China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is aimed at consolidating its economic and strategic position in Central Asia, and it may view India's engagement with the region as a challenge to its own ambitions.

Russia's position on India's engagement with Central Asia is also complex. Russia has historically been the dominant power in Central Asia, and it views the region as its sphere of influence. Russia welcomes India's economic engagement with Central Asia, as it can contribute to regional stability and economic growth. However, Russia is also wary of India's growing strategic presence in the region, particularly its military cooperation with Central Asian countries. Russia seeks to maintain its own influence in Central Asia and may view India's engagement with the region as a potential challenge to its own interests.

The broader implications of India's engagement with Central Asia are multifaceted and far-reaching. Politically, it strengthens India's political influence in the region and enhances its diplomatic relations with Central Asian countries. Economically, it increases trade and investment between India and Central Asia, creating new opportunities for economic growth and development. Security-wise, it promotes regional security cooperation and enhances India's ability to address security threats emanating from the region.

The historical precedents for India's engagement with Central Asia provide valuable lessons and insights for its current efforts. India's historical Silk Route connections with Central Asia facilitated trade, cultural exchange, and the spread of Buddhism. These historical connections provide a strong foundation for India's current engagement with the region and demonstrate the potential benefits of closer ties between India and Central Asia.

India's support for Central Asian independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union is another important historical precedent. India was one of the first countries to recognize the independence of the Central Asian states, and it has been a strong supporter of their sovereignty and territorial integrity. This support has earned India goodwill and trust in Central Asia and has paved the way for closer cooperation in various fields.

The future outlook for India-Central Asia relations is positive, with increased cooperation expected in areas such as trade, energy, security, and infrastructure development. India is committed to working with Central Asian countries to promote regional stability and prosperity. The India-Central Asia Dialogue is expected to become a regular event, providing a valuable platform for India and Central Asian countries to discuss issues of mutual interest and to explore opportunities for cooperation. India's engagement with Central Asia is a long-term strategic priority, and India is committed to building a strong and mutually beneficial partnership with the region.