The concept of 60-plus delinquencies often arises in discussions about the health of the housing and credit markets. This metric allows lenders and financial institutions to assess and monitor the risk associated with mortgage loans. In this article, we will delve into what 60-plus delinquencies are, why they are important, and how they influence both lenders and borrowers.

What Are 60-Plus Delinquencies?

The 60-plus delinquency rate is defined as the percentage of mortgage loans that are more than 60 days late on payments compared to a designated loan portfolio, typically underwritten within a specified time frame, such as one year. It can also extend to other types of consumer loans, including auto loans and credit card payments.

Importance of the 60-Plus Delinquency Rate

The metric serves as a crucial measure for creditors and lenders, shedding light on borrowers who may be unable to keep up with their payments and are at risk of defaulting. High rates of 60-plus delinquencies can indicate broader economic issues, such as rising unemployment or stagnant wage growth, making it essential for lenders to keep a close watch.

Understanding the distinction between prime and subprime loans can further detail these rates. Prime loans are issued to borrowers with good credit histories, while subprime loans cater to those with poor credit. Generally, the 60-plus delinquency rate for subprime loans surpasses that of prime loans, highlighting an increased risk among less creditworthy borrowers.

Economic Indicators

The 60-plus delinquency rate functions as an early warning signal for lenders. A rise in this rate can reflect deteriorating economic conditions; conversely, as the economy flourishes and unemployment rates decrease, delinquency rates tend to fall. Monitoring these rates provides banks and lenders with insights into the financial health of consumers, helping them to make informed lending decisions.

Moreover, persistent high delinquency rates can lead to increased bank losses as fewer mortgage payments translate into decreased revenue. This can create a cycle of reduced lending activity, leading to further economic challenges.

60-Plus Delinquencies vs. Foreclosure

While 60-plus delinquency rates provide an initial look at payment behavior, they should not be conflated with foreclosures, a more severe outcome. A loan typically enters the pre-foreclosure process once it is 90 to 120 days delinquent. At this stage, lenders may file a notice of default and begin the legal process to seize the property.

Understanding the timeline of delinquencies and foreclosures is vital. The earlier lenders can identify troubled loans through the 60-plus metric, the better their chances of intervening and helping borrowers prevent foreclosure.

The Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Connection

Another aspect to consider is the impact of delinquency rates on mortgage-backed securities (MBS). MBS are investment products backed by pools of mortgage loans, and the performance of these securities heavily relies on the underlying loans being current.

If the delinquency rate for the loans constituting a mortgage-backed security rises above acceptable levels, it can lead to cash shortfalls, affecting the payouts to investors. This risk impacts not only individual lenders but the entire financial market, showcasing the far-reaching effects of delinquencies.

Special Considerations: Pandemic Protections

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for protections for homeowners facing financial struggles. Legislative measures, such as the CARES Act, introduced provisions for mortgage forbearance, allowing eligible borrowers to temporarily skip payments without incurring penalties. Such protections aimed to curb the spike in 60-plus delinquencies during the economic disruption caused by the pandemic.

However, borrowers must fully understand that while forbearance offers short-term relief, the missed payments will be due eventually, leading to potentially larger obligations once the forbearance period ends.

Current Trends in 60-Plus Delinquencies

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), mortgage delinquency rates underwent a significant shift during the pandemic. The rate peaked at 8.22% in Q2 of 2020 but fell to 6.38% by Q1 2021, marking an unprecedented decline. Notably, FHA-backed mortgage loans recorded the highest delinquency rate at 14.67% during this period.

While many regions saw improvement from pandemic heights, overall delinquency rates remained elevated compared to pre-COVID levels, indicating ongoing risks in the housing market.

Conclusion

In summary, the 60-plus delinquency rate is a vital metric for evaluating the risk of mortgage loans and understanding broader economic conditions. It serves multiple stakeholders, including lenders, investors in mortgage-backed securities, and policymakers navigating economic challenges. As economic conditions continue to evolve, monitoring delinquency rates will remain crucial for anticipating shifts in the housing market and addressing the needs of borrowers. Knowing the potential implications of 60-plus delinquencies empowers lenders and borrowers alike to make informed decisions, supporting a healthier financial landscape.